GRAPES-SDM沙尘模式预报与卫星遥感监测结果对比

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2014.00012

摘要/Abstract

摘要： GRAPES-SDM沙尘模式和卫星遥感监测是目前沙尘暴监测预报业务中重要的工具.本文使用天气学检验方法,对中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所目前使用的GRAPES-SDM沙尘模式2012年春季沙尘天气预报情况以及FY-2D卫星遥感产品沙尘指数IDDI的监测效果进行检验评估.结果表明:沙尘模式在西北沙尘暴预报业务中具有很好的预报参考价值,卫星遥感沙尘指数也具有较好的监测效果,但两者均存在一定的问题.沙尘模式对大范围沙尘暴过程有较好的预报能力,但对沙尘强度预报偏强;卫星遥感沙尘指数虽然不能定性地表示沙尘强度,但是在一定程度上能够反映沙尘强度的变化,不过反映沙尘强度的数值及其分布区间还有待于进一步完善.卫星遥感在南疆盆地常会将大片深厚的沙尘气溶胶区域误判为云区,造成对沙尘天气特别是沙尘暴天气未能识别的现象,另外IDDI指数不能用于夜间沙尘监测.

关键词: GRAPES-SDM沙尘模式, 预报, 检验, 卫星遥感监测

Abstract: The GRAPES-SDM model and the satellite remote sensing monitoring are important tools in sand-storm monitoring and forecasting. By comparing the forecast results of the GRAPES-SDM model and the dust index (IDDI)of the FY-2D satellite remote sensing products and the observed data on sand-storm weather in North China in the springs of 2012, we tested the forecast products and the remote sensing products with synoptic verification method. The results showed that the forecasting of the GRAPES-SDM model was accurate, and the remote sensing monitoring also has a good monitoring effect in North China in the spring. But there were also some problems, such as GRAPES-SDM model could forecast dust weather in Hexi Corridor of Gansu province with less intensity than that observed, but in Inner Mongolia with stronger intensity,and the model could forecast dust weathers in South Xinjiang Basin with less narrow belt range and less intensity than that observed. The dust index of satellite remote sensing could reflect the change of intensity of dust though not qualitative representation of dust concentration to some extent, but its ability of reflecting the value and distribution of sand strength interval had yet to be further perfected, and some dust aerosols often were misclassified as clouds in South Xinjiang so that the satellite remote sensing products could not recognized dust weather. At last dust monitoring IDDI index could not be used for the night.

Key words: GRAPES-SDM model, forecast, verification, satellite remote sensing monitoring

中图分类号:

P445.4

段海霞, 郭铌, 霍文, 秦贺, 马玉芬. GRAPES-SDM沙尘模式预报与卫星遥感监测结果对比[J]. 中国沙漠, 2014, 34(6): 1617-1623.

Duan Haixia, Guo Ni, Huo Wen, Qin He, Ma Yufen. The Comparison of the Prediction Efficiency of GRAPES-SDM Dust-Storm Model and the Satellite Remote Sensing Monitoring[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2014, 34(6): 1617-1623.

参考文献

[1] 叶笃正,丑纪范,刘纪远,等.关于中国华北地区沙尘天气的成因与治理对策[J].地理学报,2000,55(5):513-521.
[2] 石广玉,赵思雄.沙尘暴研究中的若干科学问题[J].大气科学,2003,27(4):591-606.
[3] 钱正安,蔡英,刘景涛,等.中蒙地区沙尘暴研究的若干进展[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(1):83-92.
[4] 李万莉,吕世华,杨胜朋,等.金塔绿洲主要特征量的数值模拟[J].中国沙漠,2010,30(5):1207-1214.
[5] 李荫堂,佘园元,孟海燕.沙尘起动初期近地面浓度分布数值模拟研究[J].中国沙漠,2010,30(3):492-497.
[6] 王澄海,靳双龙,杨世莉.新疆“2.28”大风过程中热、动力作用的模拟分析[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(2):511-516.
[7] 刘宁微,马雁军,刘晓梅,等.蒙古气旋引发辽宁沙尘暴天气过程的数值模拟[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(1):217-222.
[8] 赵建华,张强,李耀辉,等.“7.17”西北夏季沙尘暴数值模拟[J].中国沙漠,2009,29(6):1221-1228.
[9] 张小曳.2006年春季的东北亚沙尘暴 [M].北京:气象出版社,2006:35.
[10] 段海霞,李耀辉,赵建华,等.近年来GRAPES_SDM沙尘模式预报效果检验评估[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(1):214-222.
[11] Stowe L L,Ignatov A M,Singh R R.Development,validation,and potential enhancements to the second-generation operational aerosol product at the national environmental satellite,data,and information service of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1997,102:16923-16934.
[12] Moulin C,Guilloard F,Dulac F,et al.Long term daily monitoring of Saharan dust load over ocean using Meteosat ISCCP-B2 data part I:Methodology and preliminary results for 1983-1994 in the Mediterranean[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1997,102:16947-16958.
[13] Legrand M,Plana-Fattori A,N'doume.Satellite detection of dust using the IR imagery of Meteosat I:Infrared difference dust index[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research,2001,106(D16):18251-18274.
[14] Brooks N.Dust-climate Interactions in the Sahel-Sahara Zone of Northern Africa,with Particular Reference to Late Twentieth Century Sahelian Drought[D]. Norwich,UK:Climate Research Unit,University of East Anglia, 2000.
[15] 李海萍,熊利亚,庄大方.中国沙尘灾害遥感监测研究现状及发展趋势[J].地理科学进展,2003,22(1):45-52.
[16] 范一大,史培军,罗敬宁.沙尘暴卫星遥感研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2003,18(3):367-373.
[17] 郑新江,陆文杰,罗敬宁.气象卫星多通道信息监测沙尘暴的研究[J].遥感学报,2001,5(4):300-305.
[18] 方宗义,张运刚,郑新江,等.用气象卫星遥感监测沙尘的方法和初步研究[J].第四纪研究,2001,21(1):48-55.
[19] 马超飞,马建文,韩秀珍,等.沙尘暴运移路径及影响范围遥感监测[J].自然灾害学报,2001,10(4):222-227.
[20] 延昊,王长耀,牛铮,等.东亚沙尘源地、沙尘输送路径的遥感研究[J].地理科学进展,2002,21(1):90-94.
[21] 陈科艺,彭志强.应用OMI卫星资料监测蒙古戈壁沙尘的传播[J].高原气象,2012,31(3):798-803.
[22] 郑有飞,刘贞,刘建军,等.中国北部一次沙尘过程中沙尘气溶胶的时空分布及输送特性[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(5):1440-1452
[23] 赵建华,李耀辉,蒲朝霞,等.GRAPES沙尘数值预报系统对一次沙尘暴沙尘浓度同化模拟试验分析[J].高原气象,2012,31(3):697-705.
[24] 段海霞,李耀辉,蒲朝霞,等.沙尘浓度资料与AMSU辐射率资料同化在GRAPES_SDM沙尘暴模式中的应用[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(4):1150-1159
[25] 卢乃锰,胡秀清,邱红.利用静止卫星监测沙尘暴的业务方法[M]//沙尘暴监测预警服务研究.北京:气象出版社,2002:34-39.
[26] 胡秀清,卢乃锰,张鹏.利用静止气象卫星红外通道遥感监测中国沙尘暴[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(3):266-275.
[27] 李耀辉,赵建华,薛纪善,等.基于GRAPES的西北地区沙尘暴数值预报模式及其应用研究[J].地球科学进展,2005,20(9):999-1011.