天山暴雨数值模拟的试验研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用新疆天山地区加密自动气象站资料、常规探空资料和NOAA卫星AMSU辐射亮温资料,应用中尺度模式(WRF-ARW)和(3DVAR)同化系统,对2007年7月16—17日发生在新疆东天山的暴雨天气过程进行了数值模拟试验。结果表明:①通过WRF模式对天山地区“2004-07-18”和“2010-06-22”两次暴雨过程的数值模拟试验, WRF模式在天山地区以Lin微物理过程方案,Grell积云对流参数化方案,MYJ边界层参数化方案,耦合Noah陆面模式的方案组合更优。②同化天山地区加密自动气象站资料、常规探空资料和AMSU-A/B辐射亮温资料,使初始场更接近于当时的实际大气状况,且同化后的模拟预报效果,无论是对降水落区还是对降水强度均较控制试验有明显的改善。③适当提高模式水平分辨率,有助于改进暴雨落区的预报强度。

关键词: 天山, WRF模式, 资料同化, 暴雨模拟

Abstract: Based on automatic weather station network data, sounding data and NOAA-AMSU brightness temperature data in Tianshan Mountains area, we numerically simulated a strong convective rainfall process occurred in east Tianshan Mountains area from July 16 to July 17, 2007 with the mesoscale numerical model WRF and its 3D-VAR assimilation system. A former simulation of two strong convective rainfall processes on July 18, 2004 and June 22, 2010 indicated that the scheme composition of micro-physical processes Lin scheme, Grell cumulus scheme, MYJ boundary layer parameterization scheme and coupled Noah land surface model gave more reasonable results than other combinations of physical process parameterization schemes when using WRF model in Tianshan Mountains region. Compared with results of non-assimilation test, simulation effect of location and intensity of heavy rainfall had been significantly improved by assimilation test of observation data because the initial field was closer to the actual atmospheric status. Meanwhile, forecasting accuracy of rainfall location could be improved if the horizontal resolution of the model was appropriately increased.

Key words: Tianshan Mountains, WRF model, data assimilation, rainstorm simulation

中图分类号:

P458

朱伟军, 廖芷仪, 何清, 缪启龙. 天山暴雨数值模拟的试验研究[J]. 中国沙漠, 2012, 32(4): 1102-1109.

ZHU Wei-jun, LIAO Zhi-yi, HE Qing, MIAO Qi-long. Numerical Simulation of Rainstorm in Tianshan Mountains Area[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2012, 32(4): 1102-1109.

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