关键词: 多维灰色评估模型, 荒漠化防治, 综合效益, 预测, 河曲县

Abstract: Taking Hequ county in northwest of Shanxi province as an example, we have formulated an evaluating index system for the compositive effect of combating desertification, and have forecasted the compositive effect and the spatial distribution characteristics with multidimensional gray evaluation model for every town of Hequ county in 2010. The 21 towns of Hequ County are regionalized into three types, namely, high effect type, middle effect type and low effect type. From the forecasting result it can be seen that the compositive effect of combating desertification in Hequ county is hopeful to reach a higher level as a whole, but has trend of polarization. Spatially, the relation between the effect types and the eco-economic regions is very weak, specially, in the middle hilly area and southeast high mountain area. These two regions have their special advantages and disadvantages in geographical and ecological condition, and are able to produce the best effect if the suitable measures are applied.

Key words: multidimensional gray evaluation model, desertification control, compositive effect, forecast, Hequ county