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中国沙漠 ›› 1995, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (4): 353-356.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

灰色预测理论在沙漠化监测中的应用

康国定, 姚发芬, 王熙章, 董玉祥   

  1. 1. 中国科学院兰州沙漠研究所, 兰州 730000;
    2. 中山大学城市与资源规划系, 广州 510275
  • 收稿日期:1995-02-06 修回日期:1995-04-12 出版日期:1995-12-20 发布日期:1995-12-20
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院兰州分院择优基金资助项目

APPLICATION OF GREY PREDICTION THEORY IN DESERTIFICATION MONITORING

Kang Guoding, Yao Fafen, Wang Xizhang, Dong Yuxiang   

  1. 1. Institute of Desert Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 730000;
    2. Department of City and Resource Planning, Zhngxhan University, Guangzhou, 510275
  • Received:1995-02-06 Revised:1995-04-12 Online:1995-12-20 Published:1995-12-20

摘要: 本文在农牧交错带沙漠化信息系统的基础上,根据数据库中的部分内容,以榆林县为例,用灰色系统的理论及GM(1,1)预测模型,分别对该县的人口及沙漠化土地进行预测研究,研究结果为;到2000年,榆林县人口为44.03万人,比1975年净增人口18.05万人,占1975年总人口的69.49%,人口密度达62.39人/km2,比1977年联合国沙漠化会议提出的20人/km2,为干旱地带的人口对土地压力的临界值高42.39人/km2;榆林县重度、中度、轻度沙漠化土地面积分别为20.6965万ha,15.0126 ha和10.7105万ha。严重沙漠化土地面积比1975年减少约19万ha,中度沙漠化土面积比1975年增加约4.8万ha,轻度沙漠化土地面积比1975年增加5.6万ha,总的趋势是沙漠化土地面积减少。

关键词: 沙漠化监测, 灰色系统理论, 预测模型

Abstract: Based on the desertification information system in agropastoral area of northern China,taking Yulin County as an example and using the grey prediction theory and GM(1,1)prediction model, a prediction study on population and land desertification in Yulin County was made. The study results showed that by the year 2000,the population of Yulin County will reach up to 440 300,a net increase of 180 500 over 1975; the population density will reach up to 62.39 persons/km2, or greatly exceeds the critical value of land pressure of arid zone set by UNCOD in 1977. The areas of severe,moderate and light desertified lands in Yulin are 206 965 ha, 150 126 ha and 107 105 ha respectively. As compared with 1975, severe desertified land reduces 190000 ha,moderate desertified land reduces 48 000 ha, while light desertified land increases 56 000 ha. In other words,the area of desertified land in Yulin tends to be reduced.

Key words: Desertification monitoring, Grey system theory, Prediction model