关键词: 祁连山国家公园, 草原补奖政策, 实施效益评估, 多元线性回归, 多元有序Logistic回归

Abstract:

The implementation of grassland subsidy policy plays an important role in promoting grassland ecological restoration and sustainable development of economics in pastoral areas. Based on the field survey data of the Qilian Mountain National Park （Zhangye Section）， this paper uses principal component analysis， multiple linear regression model and multiple Logistic regression model to analyze the main factors affecting the income of farmers after the implementation of the grassland compensation policy. The results revealed that the income of farmers was mainly affected by grassland ecological subsidy policy， other income， livestock production expenditure and stock number. Nearly 80% of farmers and herdsmen were satisfied with the grassland subsidy policy. The improvement effect of grassland ecology， whether to support the implementation of grassland subsidy policy and whether the approved number of livestock set by the government is reasonable significantly affect the satisfaction degree of policy implementation. After the implementation of the policy， the main problems in the study area are as follows： The increase of vegetation coverage and accumulated biomass increased the grassland fire protection pressure in some protected areas. The increase of wild animal population increases the damage degree of grassland. After the industrial transformation， farmers did not receive enough social caring， they expect to raise the subsidy standard or guarantee fund.

Key words: Qilian Mountain National Park, grassland subsidy policy, implementation benefit evaluation, multiple linear regression, multiple ordered Logistic regression