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  • CN 62-1070/P
  • ISSN 1000-694X
  • 双月刊 创刊于1981年
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生态与经济

基于Logistic模型的三工河流域农户节水灌溉驱动力分析

  • 张新焕1 ,
  • 肖艳秋2 ,
  • 杨德刚1 ,
  • 刘云同3
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  • 1.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011;
    2.山西省城乡规划设计研究院, 山西 太原 030011;
    3.新疆师范大学 地理科学与旅游学院, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830054

收稿日期: 2012-10-22

  修回日期: 2012-11-27

  网络出版日期: 2013-01-20

Analysis on Driving Forces of Households’ Water-saving Irrigation Decision-making in the Sangonghe River Basin Using the Logistic Model

  • ZHANG Xin-huan1 ,
  • XIAO Yan-qiu2 ,
  • YANG De-gang1 ,
  • LIU Yun-tong3
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  • 1.Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
    2.Shanxi Academy of Urban and Rural Planning and Design, Taiyuan 030011, China;
    3.College of Geographic Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, Xinjiang, China

Received date: 2012-10-22

  Revised date: 2012-11-27

  Online published: 2013-01-20

摘要

基于三工河流域284份农户抽样问卷调查数据,总结了多因素作用下农户灌溉决策机理。自然因素是导致农户灌溉行为区域差异的根源,农户自身因素影响农户对灌溉和节水的认识,政府决策可有效调控农户决策行为。根据农户灌溉决策机理,选择耕地状况、政策管理、农户素质、家庭经济状况和农户当前灌溉特征5类因素,构建Logistic模型分析多因素与农户节水意愿的关系,得出影响农户选择节水灌溉的主要因子,按影响程度从大到小排序如下:灌溉水价>耕地区位>非农收入比重>耕地归属>农户对滴灌的了解程度>受访者性别>灌水量>家庭劳动力平均年龄>家庭耕地面积,并据此提出鼓励农户选择节水技术的建议。

本文引用格式

张新焕1 , 肖艳秋2 , 杨德刚1 , 刘云同3 . 基于Logistic模型的三工河流域农户节水灌溉驱动力分析[J]. 中国沙漠, 2013 , 33(1) : 288 -294 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2013.00039

Abstract

Based on the data obtained through the 284 households questionnaires investigation, we summarized the decision-making mechanism of households irrigation. Natural factors were the most fundamental factors leading to regional irrigation method differences. Farmers own conditions affected their awareness of irrigation methods and water conservation importance. Governments policies played an effective role in regulating households decision-making behavior. According to the understanding to decision-making mechanism, the land condition, irrigation policies, farmers qualities, households economic conditions and the households present irrigation methods were chosen to make a Logistic model to analyze the relations between the multiple factors and households willingness to save water. The results showed that the following factors were the main factors influencing households selection of water-saving technology, whatwater-savings more, their influence degrees were different, that was, water price>farmland patch location>proportion of non-farming income>ownership of farmland patch>comprehension degree on water-saving irrigation> interviewees gender>irrigation quantity>average age of labor>households farmland area. Then, some advices were put forward to encourage households to choose water-saving irrigation method.

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