收稿日期: 2012-09-05
修回日期: 2012-10-30
网络出版日期: 2012-10-30
Change of Extreme Climate Events during 1961-2010 in Northern Xinjiang, China
Received date: 2012-09-05
Revised date: 2012-10-30
Online published: 2012-10-30
本文利用1961—2010年北疆地区20个气象台站的逐日降水量、最高气温、最低气温及平均气温资料,采用国际气候诊断与指数小组(ETCDDMI)所提供极端降水和气温事件的各种指标,对极端气候事件时空变化规律进行分析。结果表明:近50年,北疆地区极端降水和气温事件有显著的增加趋势;在北疆不同气候区极端降水指标变化趋势表现不同,其中准噶尔盆地地区增长趋势最慢;冷夜(日) 指数呈现下降趋势,为-4.05 d/10a(-1.51 d/10a),暖夜(日)指数呈现增加趋势,为4.36 d/10a (1.64 d/10a)。线性趋势分析发现,在20世纪80年代后极端降水事件有明显的增加趋势;应用M-K检测年最高气温和年最低气温,发现大多数站点在20世纪80年代后年最高气温和年最低气温也呈现显著增加。这表明在20世纪80年代后,北疆地区的极端气候事件增加趋势更加显著。
张延伟1 , 2 , 李红忠2 , 魏文寿3 , 刘明哲1 , 史本林2 . 1961—2010年北疆地区极端气候事件变化[J]. 中国沙漠, 2013 , 33(6) : 1891 -1897 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2013.00245
Based on daily data of precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature from 20 meteorological stations over northern Xinjiang during 1961-2010, the extreme precipitation indices from the ETCDDMI organization were determined for different meteorological stations, and six indices of extreme precipitation and eleven indices of extreme temperature were computed and their spatial characteristics and temporal trends were analyzed. The extreme precipitation and temperature indices indicated remarkable climate regional difference, e.g. Junggar Basin region increased slowly. Annual frequency of cool nights (days) decreased by 4.05 d/10a (1.51 d/10a), whereas the frequency of warm nights (days) increased by 4.36 d/10a (1.64 d/10a). The Mann-Kendall trend test and simple linear regression were utilized to detect monotonic trends in annual maximum (minimum) temperature and extreme precipitation. It showed that annual maximum (minimum) temperature and most extreme precipitation indices showed significant increase trends from the middle of 1980s. After 1980s, extreme climate events significantly increased in northern Xinjiang.
[1]IPCC.Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis[M]//Cambridge,United Kingdom:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[2]任国玉,初子莹,周雅清,等.中国气温变化研究最新进展[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):701-716.
[3]Zhang Y W,Wei W S,Jiang F Q,et al.Assessment of change in temperature and precipitation over Xinjiang,China[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2012,12(5):1327-1331.
[4]Katz R W,Brown B G.Extreme events in a changing climate:variability is more important than averages[J].Climatic Change,1992,21(3):289-302.
[5]Karl T R,Knight R W.Secular trends of precipitation amount,frequency,and intensity in the United States[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1998,79:1107-1119.
[6]Barnett T P,Pierce D W,Hidalgo H G,et al.Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the Western United States[J].Science,2008,319:1080-1083.
[7]Easterling D R,Evans J L,Groisman P Y.Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events:a brief review[J].Bulletin of American Meteorological Society,2000,25:417-425.
[8]THORPREX-China Committee.极端天气气候事件[EB/OL].http://www.thorpexchina.org.cn/Website/index.php?ChannelID=6&NewsID=28.
[9]普宗朝,张山清,王胜兰,等.近48 a新疆干湿气候时空变化特征[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(6):1563-1572.
[10]辛渝,炜峄,李元鹏,等.新疆不同季节降水气候分区及变化趋势[J].中国沙漠,2009,29(5):948-959.
[11]张广兴,赵玲,孙淑芳.新疆1961-2000年高空温度变化的若干事实及突变分析[J].中国沙漠,2008,28(5):908-914.
[12]张生军,王天明,王涛.新疆近50 a来降水量时空变化及其突变分析[J].中国沙漠,2010,30(3):668-674.
[13]张延伟,姜逢清,魏文寿,等.1961-2004年新疆降水极值概率分布特征[J].中国沙漠,2012,32(2):503-508.
[14]蔡新玲,吴素良,贺皓,等.变暖背景下陕西极端气候事件变化分析[J].中国沙漠,2012,32(4):1095-1101.
[15]王世杰,杨莲梅,史玉光.乌鲁木齐1991-2010年降雨特征分析[J].中国沙漠,2012,32(2):509-516.
[16]王敏仲,魏文寿,杨莲梅,等.新疆2007年“7·17”大降水天气过程诊断分析[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(1):199-206.
[17]中华人民共和国国务院新闻办公室.中国应对气候变化的政策与行动[R].2008.
[18]中华人民共和国国务院新闻办公室.中国应对气候变化的政策与行动[R].2011.
[19]白磊,李兰海,李倩,等.新疆北疆地区季节性冻土结冻过程与日积温的关系[J].冰川冻土,2012,34(2):328-335.
[20]陈曦.中国干旱区自然地理[M].北京:科学出版社,2010.
[21]Unkaevi M,Tosie I,Vujovi D.Variability and probability of annual and extreme precipitation over Serbia and Montenegro[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2004,79:103-109.
[22]Rahimzadeh F,Asgari A,Fattahi E.Variability of extreme temperature and precipitation in Iran during recent decades[J].International Journal of Climatology,2009,29:329-343.
[23]Lupikasza E B,Hansel S,Matschullat J.Regional and seasonal variability of extreme precipitation trends in southern Poland and central-eastern Germany 1951-2006[J].International Journal of Climatology,2011,31:2249-2271.
[24]Karl T R,Nicholls N,Ghazi A.CLIVAR/GCOS/WMO workshop on indices and indicators for climate extremes:workshop summary[J].Climatic Change,2003,42:3-7.
[25]Peterson T C.Report on the Activities of the Working Group on Climate Change Detection and Related Rapporteurs 1998-2001[R].Geneva,Switzerland:World Meteorological Organization:143.
[26]Peterson T C.Climate Change Indices[J].WMO Bulletin,2005,54(2):83-86.
[27]Zhang Y W,Wei W S,Jiang F Q,et al.Changes of annual maximum number of consecutive dry and wet days during 1961-2008 in Xinjiang,China[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2012,12:1353-1365.
[28]Sneyers R.On the statistical analysis of series of observations[R].Geneva,Switzerland:World Meteorological Organization,1990:192.
[29]赵勇,黄丹青,朱坚.北疆极端降水事件的初步分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2010,4(5):1-5.
[30]施雅风,沈永平,李栋梁,等.中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的特征和趋势探讨[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(2):152-164.
[31]Zhang Y W,Wei W S,Jiang F Q,et al.Spatial and temporal temperature variations in Xinjiang,China during 1961-2008[J].Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions,2012,4(1):74-82.
[32]何清,杨青,李红军.新疆40 a来气温、降水和沙尘天气变化[J].冰川冻土,2003,25(4):423-427.
/
〈 |
|
〉 |