基于宁夏地区1978—2010年旱灾灾情要素年资料和23个气象站1971—2011年月平均气温和月降水量资料，运用Mann-Kendall趋势分析和突变检验方法，详细分析了该地区近33年旱灾灾情及近41年气候的时空变化特征，在此基础上，剖析了持续性旱灾产生的气候背景。结果表明：1978—2010年宁夏地区旱灾呈持续性加重趋势，受灾人口、农作物受灾面积和直接经济损失增速分别为28.78万人/10a、3.16万hm2/10a和8 504.04万元/10a。空间变化上，旱灾加重速度由中部向北、向南呈减慢趋势。1971—2011年宁夏地区气候总体呈暖干化趋势，年平均气温、平均最高气温和最低气温的升温率分别为0.42 ℃/10a、0.37 ℃/10a和0.50 ℃/10a，增暖表现为全年温度升高，年平均气温和平均最高气温于20世纪90年代早期发生了显著增暖突变；降水量呈减少趋势，但不显著。宁夏持续性旱灾是气温持续快速上升和降水量减少共同作用的结果，其中气温显著增高是该地区干旱灾害加剧的主要气候因素。
Based on the annual drought elements from 1978 to 2010, the monthly mean air temperature and monthly precipitation of 23 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2011 in Ningxia, the climatic background of the persistent drought was analyzed according to the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of drought and climate which were analyzed in detail by Mann-Kendall test. The drought displayed a persistent aggravation tendency in Ningxia from 1978 to 2010. The number of victims, the disaster areas of crops and the direct economic loss increased by 28.78×104 person/10a, 3.16×104 hm2/10a and 8 504.04×104 RMB/10a, respectively. The drought aggravation speed showed a decreasing trend from the central area to the south and the north area. The climate change in Ningxia was becoming warmer and drier. In recent 41 years, the annual mean air temperature, annual mean maximum air temperature and annual mean minimum air temperature showed a significant increasing trend, with a rate of temperature rise by 0.42 ℃/10a, 0.37 ℃/10a and 0.50 ℃/10a, respectively. The climate warming was characterized by temperature rise all year, and a significant warming mutation of the annual mean air temperature and annual mean maximum air temperature occurred in the early 1990s. Precipitation in Ningxia showed a non-significant decreasing trend from 1971 to 2011. The persistent drought in Ningxia was attributed to the synthetic action of the sustained and rapid rise in air temperature and the decrease in precipitation. The significant temperature rise was the main climatic factor of the aggravated drought in Ningxia.
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