基于1954-2010 年疏勒河干流出山径流量、2000-2010年流域内灌区水资源供应量、灌区农作物种植类型、农作物及林草地面积等资料,通过建立系统动力学模型,探讨了气候变化背景下疏勒河径流量对绿洲的影响。结果表明:绿洲受径流量变化影响显著,若出山径流量按1954-2010 年变化趋势增加,绿洲面积、农业产值、生态效益将有不同程度增加; 若出山径流量减小,绿洲面积、农业产值、生态效益亦相应减小。2020年出山径流量较2010年分别减少5%、10%、15%时,绿洲面积和农业产值相应减小4.5%、8.9%、13.4%。在径流量不变情况下,若普及常规节水,林、草地面积均增加16%以上; 若普及高效节水,林、草地面积均扩大54.7%; 若提高渠系利用率到0.70,林草地面积扩大5%以上,总产值增加5.4%; 若提高渠系利用率到0.75,林草地面积增加12%以上,总产值增加12.2%。

Based on the stream flow at the debouchure of the Shulehe River from 1954-2010, and water supply, forest land, grassland area, crop type and its planting area at the irrigation district from 2000-2010, the impact of runoff change at the Shulehe River Oasis has been studied using system dynamics model under the background of climate change. The results showed that runoff change had significant effects on the oasis. If the runoff maintains the same growth trend in the future, the oasis area, agricultural output and ecological benefits would increase at different degrees; if the runoff decreases, the oasis area, agricultural output and ecological benefits would decrease accordingly. To be specific, if the runoff decreases by 5%, 10% and 15% in 2020, the oasis area and agricultural output would decrease by 4.5%, 8.9% and 13.4%. Therefore, putting water-saving project into practice positively and improving the utilization of canal system could tackle the adverse effect of runoff reduction in the future. Particularly, in a case of the runoff unchanged, if we spread conventional water-saving, forest land and grassland area would both increase by more than 16%, and if we spread efficient water-saving, the forest land area and grassland area would increase by 54.7%. If we improve the utilization of canal system to 0.70, the forest land and grassland area would both increase by more than 5% with a total output increasing by 5.4%, and if we improve the utilization of canal system to 0.75, the forest land and grassland area would both increase by more than 12% with a total output increasing by 12.2%.