博斯腾湖与伊塞克湖水位变化特征及预测对比
收稿日期: 2014-02-08
修回日期: 2014-04-09
网络出版日期: 2015-05-20
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目(U1138302,41201032);国家国际科技合作项目(2010DFA92720-28)
Comparison on the Annual Water Level Variations and Prediction between the Bosten Lake and the Issyk-Kul Lake
Received date: 2014-02-08
Revised date: 2014-04-09
Online published: 2015-05-20
根据1961-2012年湖泊水位观测资料,采用时间序列线性趋势分析与小波分析法,对比研究了博斯腾湖与伊塞克湖近50多年来水位变化特征,并对湖泊未来水位变化趋势进行预测。结果显示:(1)1961-2012年,博斯腾湖和伊塞克湖年水位总体呈显著的下降趋势。20世纪80年代中期之前,两湖水位变化趋势基本一致,都平稳下降;90年代后,博斯腾湖水位变化波动比伊塞克湖更为频繁,经历了迅速上升和下降的阶段,而伊塞克湖年水位较为稳定。(2)水位小波分析结果表明,博斯腾湖和伊塞克湖年水位变化分别存在18 a和22 a的主周期,从水位未来变化趋势预测结果来看,博斯腾湖水位将来一段时间继续下降,伊塞克湖水位则继续上升。
米热古力·艾尼瓦尔, 海米提·依米提, 麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜, 夏库热·塔依尔, Yorov Hasan . 博斯腾湖与伊塞克湖水位变化特征及预测对比[J]. 中国沙漠, 2015 , 35(3) : 792 -799 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2014.00049
Based on the observation data of lake water level from 1961 to 2012, using time series linear trend analysis and wavelet analysis, comparative study Bosten Lake and Issyk-Kul nearly 50 years water level change characteristics and predictive analysis the lake water level future trends. The results show that: ①from 1961 to 2012, Bosten Lake and Issyk-Kul annual water level shows a significant decline trend. Before the mid-1980s, the two lakes water level almost the same change trend, all steady decline. After the 1990s, Bosten Lake water level change fluctuation more frequent than the Issyk-Kul, has experienced rapid rise and fall stages, but the Issyk-Kul water level is relatively stable. ②wavelet analysis results show that, Bosten Lake and Issyk-Kul annual water level presence 18-a and 22-a primary period. According to the water level future change trend forecast results, In future for a period of time Bosten Lake water level continued to decline, Issyk-Kul lake water level continued to rise.
Key words: Bosten Lake; Issyk-Kul Lake; water level; wavelet analysis; comparative analysis
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