退牧还草政策的可持续性是关系到政策目标的实现与巩固、关系到区域乃至国家生态安全及社会经济环境可持续发展的重大战略问题。本文基于农户视角,从农户对政策的满意度、支持度以及对当前政策有效性和稳定性的感知等方面出发,建立盐池县退牧还草政策可持续性的评价指标体系,采用TOPSIS分析法对盐池县退牧还草政策的可持续性进行定量评价,并对可持续性的阻碍因素进行诊断。结果显示:(1)当前盐池县退牧还草政策处于弱可持续性阶段,其中农户对政策的满意度、支持度以及政策有效性为中等水平,政策稳定性则较差;(2)盐池县退牧还草政策可持续性的主要障碍因子为政策实施后农户收入水平的变化、农户偷牧行为、农户对环境重要性的认知及其对退牧还草政策的接受态度等。在此基础上,提出提高盐池县退牧还草政策可持续性的建议。

The sustainability of grazing forbidden policyis related to not only the realization and consolidation of the policy goals, but also major strategic issues of regional and even national ecological safety and sustainable development of social-economic-environment. The sustainability of grazing forbidden policy in Yanchi County was analyzed from the perspective of peasant households. First, an evaluation index system including peasant households' support and satisfaction level for the policy as well as their perception to the current grazing forbidden policy effectiveness and stability was built. Then,the method of TOPSIS was used to carry on a quantitative evaluation on sustainability of grazing forbidden policy, and the inhibitors of policy sustainability were found out. Results showed that: (1)The sustainability of existing grazing forbidden policy in Yanchi County is at the stage of weak sustainability; Peasant households' satisfaction, support, and the policy effectiveness are in the middle level while the policy stability is in the low level. (2)The main obstacle factors forthe sustainability of the grazing forbidden policy arefarmers' income change after the policy implementation, peasant households' unreasonable behavior that is grazing without permission, households' awareness about the importance of environment protection, and their acceptance tograzing forbidden policy. Based on the analysis above,some suggestion swereput forward to improve the sustainability of existing grazing forbidden policy.