基于树木年轮宽度重建塔里木盆地西北缘水汽压变化

尚华明; 尹仔锋; 魏文寿; 袁玉江; 张瑞波; 张同文; 喻树龙; 秦莉; 陈峰

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2014.00116

中国沙漠 >

2015 , Vol. 35 >Issue 5: 1283 - 1290

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2014.00116

天气与气候

基于树木年轮宽度重建塔里木盆地西北缘水汽压变化

尚华明 ,
尹仔锋 ,
魏文寿 ,
袁玉江 ,
张瑞波 ,
张同文 ,
喻树龙 ,
秦莉 ,
陈峰

展开

1. 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所新疆树木年轮生态实验室/中国气象局树轮年轮理化研究重点实验室, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830002;
2. 新疆气象学会, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830002

尚华明(1979-),男,湖北广水人,副研究员,主要从事树轮气候与环境演变研究。Email: shang8632@163.com

收稿日期: 2014-05-26

修回日期: 2014-08-20

网络出版日期: 2015-09-20

基金资助

国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206014);国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC23B01);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2010CB951001);国家自然科学基金项目(41271098)

收起

Tree-ring Based Water Vapor Pressure Reconstruction in Northwestern Edge of the Tarim Basin

Shang Huaming ,
Yin Zifeng ,
Wei Wenshou ,
Yuan Yujiang ,
Zhang Ruibo ,
Zhang Tongwen ,
Yu Shulong ,
Qin Li ,
Chen Feng

Expand

1. Xinjiang Laboratory of Tree Ring Ecology/Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China;
2. Xinjiang Meteorology Society, Urumqi 830002, China

Received date: 2014-05-26

Revised date: 2014-08-20

Online published: 2015-09-20

Fold

摘要

利用新疆阿合奇县以南黑尔塔格山区的天山云杉树木年轮宽度资料,基于树轮宽度指数与阿合奇气象要素的相关分析发现该树木径向生长主要受水分条件限制。选择相关系数较高且生理意义明确的时段和要素,建立了树轮宽度标准年表与阿合奇上年8月至当年6月的平均水汽压的线性转换方程(R²=66.4%,R_adj²=65.1%,p<0.001)。器测资料线性趋势分析表明,近56年来阿合奇的降水和水汽压呈一致的上升趋势。阿合奇1656-2012年的水汽压序列经历了4个偏干阶段(1666-1689年、1722-1749年、1820-1880年、1909-1988年)和4个偏湿阶段(1688-1721年、1750-1819年、1881-1908年、1989-002年)。在95%的置信水平上,重建序列存在显著的56.8 a、13.4 a、10.7 a、6.9 a、5.4 a、4.3 a、3.8 a和2.6 a的周期,其56.8 a的低频周期和6.9 a的周期对应天山山区的树轮重建序列中记录的周期特征。滑动T检验发现了显著性水平达到 0.001的6个突变年份(1720年、1827年、1910年、1751年、1874年、1988年)。重建序列中1988年水汽压增加的突变和1989年以来的偏湿阶段与中国西北(特别是天山山区和南疆西部)20世纪80年代以来增湿过程对应。阿合奇的水汽压重建序列与天山山区和阿克苏的降水记录的干湿阶段一致,但与同位新疆南部天山山区中部巴仑台的干湿阶段并不对应。

关键词： 树木年轮; 天山云杉; 水汽压; 塔里木盆地; 阿合奇

本文引用格式

尚华明 , 尹仔锋 , 魏文寿 , 袁玉江 , 张瑞波 , 张同文 , 喻树龙 , 秦莉 , 陈峰 . 基于树木年轮宽度重建塔里木盆地西北缘水汽压变化[J]. 中国沙漠, 2015 , 35(5) : 1283 -1290 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2014.00116

Abstract

Tree-ring width data from south slope of the Heiertage Mountains, which is located to the south of Aheqi, Xinjiang, China, were collected to develop into chronologies. Correlation analysis between tree-ring width index and climatic factors of Aheqi meteorological station showed that tree radial growth was dominated by moisture status including precipitation, relative humidity and water vapor pressure. The optimum period and factors which is of high coefficient and physical significance, water vapor pressure from last August to current June in Aheqi was selected to establish the linear transfer function with tree-ring width standard index. The explained variance of the function is 66.4%. The observational data analysis in Aheqi indicated that precipitation, water vapor pressure and temperature show a consistent increasing tendency. Four drought periods (1666-1689, 1722-1749, 1820-1880, 1909-1988)and four wet periods (1688-1721, 1750-1819, 1881-1908, 1989-2002) were found in the reconstructed water vapor pressure series during 1656-2012. The drought and wet periods are also coincided with the reconstructed precipitation in Tianshan Mountains and Akesu, however, not with that from Baluntai in the central Tianshan Mountains in south Xinjiang. The multi-taper method (MTM) spectral analysis revealed the cycles of 56.8 a, 13.4 a, 10.7 a, 6.9 a, 5.4 a, 4.3 a, 3.8 a and 2.6 a above the 95% confidence level. In which, the cycles of 56.8 a at low frequency and 6.9 a at high frequency are correspondent with the reconstructed series in Tianshan Mountains. The abrupt increasing change in 1988 and the wet period since 1989 are consistent with the wetting trend in northwest China and especially in south Xinjiang.

Key words： tree-ring; Picea schrenkiana; water vapor pressure; Tarim basin; Aheqi

参考文献

[1] 施雅风,沈永平,胡汝骥.西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步探讨[J].冰川冻土,2002,24(3):219-226.
[2] 施雅风,沈永平,李栋梁,等.中国西北部气候由暖干向暖湿转型的特征和趋势探讨[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(2) :152-164.
[3] 胡汝骥,姜逢清,王亚俊,等.新疆气候有暖干向暖湿化转变的信号及影响[J].干旱区地理,2002,25(3):194-199.
[4] 王绍武,董光荣.中国西部环境特征及其演变[M].北京:科学出版社,2002:49-61.
[5] 李栋梁,魏丽,蔡英,等.中国西北现代气候变化事实与未来趋势展望[J].冰川冻土,2003,25 (2):135-142.
[6] 张强,张存杰,白虎志,等.西北地区气候变化新动态及对干旱环境的影响[J].干旱气象,2010,28(1):1-7.
[7] 汤懋苍,高晓清,朱德琴.本世纪西北气候可能转型的依据和原因分析[J].冰川冻土,2003,25(2):170-173.
[8] 冯思,黄云,许有鹏.全球变暖对新疆水循环影响分析[J].冰川冻土,2006,28(4):500-505.
[9] 杨青,姚俊强,赵勇,等.伊犁河流域水汽含量时空变化及其和降水量的关系[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(4):1174-1183.
[10] 王秀荣,徐祥德,黄秋菊.西北地区夏季降水与大气水汽含量状况区域性特征[J].气候与环境研究,2003,8(1):35-42.
[11] 姚俊强,杨青.胡文峰,等.天山山区空中水汽含量及与气候因子的关系[J].地理科学,2013,33(7):1174-1183.
[12] Cook E R,Woodhouse C A,Eakin C M,et al.Long-term aridity changes in the western United States[J].Science,2004,306(5698):1015-1018.
[13] Stahle D W,Fye F K,Cook E R,et al.Tree-ring reconstructed megadroughts over North America since AD 1300[J].Climatic Change,2007,83(1/2):133-149.
[14] Shao X,Xu Y,Yin Z Y,et al.Climatic implications of a 3585-year tree-ring width chronology from the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J].Quaternary Science Reviews,2010,29(17):2111-2122.
[15] Yang B,Qin C,Wang J,et al.A 3,500-year tree-ring record of annual precipitation on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2014,111(8):2903-2908.
[16] Zhang Q B,Cheng G,Yao T,et al.A 2,326-year tree-ring record of climate variability on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2003,30(14):1739-1741.
[17] 黄磊,邵雪梅,刘洪滨,等.树轮记录的青海柴达木盆地过去2800年来的极端干旱事件[J].气候与环境研究,2010,15(4):379-387.
[18] 李江风,袁玉江,由希尧.乌鲁木齐河山区流域360年径流量的重建[J].第四纪研究,1997(2):131-138.
[19] 魏文寿,袁玉江,喻树龙.中国天山山区235 a气候变化及降水趋势预测[J].中国沙漠,2008,28(5):803-808.
[20] 尚华明,魏文寿,袁玉江,等.树轮记录的中天山150年降水变化特征[J].干旱区研究,2010,27(3):443-449.
[21] Esper J,Shiyatov S G,Mazepa V S,et al.Temperature-sensitive Tien Shan tree ring chronologies show multi-centennial growth trends[J].Climate Dynamics,2003,21(7/8):699-706.
[22] 袁玉江,叶玮,董光荣.天山西部伊犁地区314 a降水的重建与分析[J].冰川冻土,2000,22(2):121-127.
[23] Li J B,Chen F H,Cook E R,et al.Drought reconstruction for north central China from tree rings:the value of the Palmer drought severity index[J].International Journal of Climatology,2007,27(7):903-909.
[24] Chen F,Yuan Y,Chen F H,et al.A 426-year drought history for Western Tian Shan,Central Asia,inferred from tree rings and linkages to the North Atlantic and Indo-West Pacific Oceans[J].The Holocene,2013,23(8):1095-1104.
[25] Zhang T,Yuan Y,Liu Y,et al.A tree-ring based precipitation reconstruction for the Baluntai region on the southern slope of the central Tien Shan Mountains,China,since AD 1464[J].Quaternary International,2013,283:55-62.
[26] 张瑞波,魏文寿,袁玉江等.树轮记录的天山南坡阿克苏河过去300 a径流变化特征[J].冰川冻土,2011,33(4):744-751.
[27] 张瑞波,魏文寿,袁玉江,等.1395-2005年天山南坡阿克苏河流域降水序列重建与分析[J].冰川冻土,2009,31(1):27-33.
[28] 田长彦,宋郁东,胡明芳.新疆荒漠化现状、成因及对策[J].中国沙漠,1999,16(3):214-217.
[29] 吴祥定.树木年轮与气候变化[M].北京:气象出版社,1990.
[30] Fritts H C.Tree Rings and Climate [M].Caldwell,USA:The Blackburn Press,1976:258-270.
[31] Holmes R L.Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurement[J].Tree-ring Bulletin,1983,43(1):69-78.
[32] Stokes M A.An Introduction to Tree-ring Dating[M].Tucson,USA:University of Arizona Press,1996:1-61.
[33] Cook E.R.Methods of Dendrochronology[M].Dordrecht,Netherlands:Kluwer Academic Publishers,1990:1-200.
[34] 邵雪梅,吴祥定.华山树木年轮年表的建立[J].地理学报,1994,49(2):174-178.
[35] Wigley T M,Briffa K R,Jones P D.On the average value of correlated time series,with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology[J].Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology,1984,23:201-213.
[36] 杨青,刘晓阳,崔彩霞,等.塔里木盆地水汽含量的计算与特征分析[J].地理学报,2010,65(7):853-862.
[37] Meko D M,Graybill D A.Tree-ring reconstruction of upper Gila River discharge [J].Water Resource Bulletin,1995,31,605-616.
[38] Cook E R,Meko D M,Stahle D W,et al.Drought reconstructions for the continental United States[J].Journal of Climate,1999,12(4):1145-1162.
[39] Mann M E,Lees J M.Robust estimation of background noise and signal detection in climatic time series[J].Climatic Change,1996,33(3):409-445.
[40] 袁玉江,魏文寿,陈峰,等.天山北坡乌鲁木齐河年径流总量的树轮重建[J].第四纪研究,2013,33(3):501-510.
[41] 袁玉江,喻树龙,穆桂金,等.天山北坡玛纳斯河355 a来年径流量的重建与分析[J].冰川冻土,2005,27(3):411-417.
[42] 张瑞波,魏文寿,袁玉江,等.树轮记录的历史时期阿克苏河流域沙尘天气变化[J].中国沙漠,2010,30(5):1040-1046.
[43] 袁林.西北灾荒史[M].兰州:甘肃人民出版社,1994:68-72,536-565.
[44] 杨莲梅,李霞,张广兴.新疆夏季强降水研究若干进展及问题[J].气候与环境研究,2011,16(2):188-198.
[45] 唐仁茂,陈英英,叶建元.探空、地面及卫星资料反演水汽含量的比较[J].气象科学,2010,30(3):373-377.
[46] 钱璇,姚永强,李俊荣,等.全国大气水汽含量分布[J].天文学报,2012,53(4):325-341.

Options

文章导航

模态框（Modal）标题

摘要

本文引用格式

Abstract

参考文献