根据河南省21个气象站点1960-2013年的气温和降水资料,运用趋势线法、Mann-Kendall突变检验、Z指数法、马尔科夫模型、经验正交函数分解等研究了河南省气候变化特征及其对旱涝的影响。结果表明:(1)河南省气温呈现上升趋势,气温突变点是1997年;降水量呈现弱减少趋势。气温从南部向北部逐步降低,中部地区增温趋势明显;降水量由东南向西北逐步减少,中东部地区呈现增加趋势,北部、西部、南部呈现减少趋势。(2)河南省干旱化趋势不断加重。气温变化与旱涝发生次数具有同步性。气温突变点1997年前后对比发现,极端涝灾发生次数明显减少,极端旱灾发生次数明显增加。运用马尔科夫模型预测旱涝随时间变化的趋势,河南省以正常状态概率最大,旱灾状态概率大于涝灾。(3)河南省主要的旱涝空间分布型态分别为整体一致型、南北反位相型、东西反位相型。年际旱涝趋势空间变化与降水量趋势空间变化基本一致;春季的变干趋势从北部向南部逐步加重;夏季的增湿趋势,从西华-南阳一线,分别向东南和西北逐步减轻;秋季整个区域有变干趋势;冬季的增湿趋势从西南向东北逐步加重。

According to the temperature and precipitation data of 21 meteorological stations which lie in Henan province during 1960-2013, by using the trend line, Mann-Kendall mutation test, Z index, markov model, empirical orthogonal function, we analyzed the climate change and its influence on drought/flood in Henan province. It turned out that: (1) The temperature presented a trend of increasing in Henan province, and the temperature mutation point is 1997. The annual precipitation showed a trend of weak decreasing. The temperature reduced gradually from south to north, and the central region presented a trend of increasing significantly. The annual precipitation reduced gradually from southeast to northwest, and the central-eastern region presented a trend of increasing, but north, west and south showed a trend of decreasing. (2) The trend of drought was increasing in Henan province. The climate change and drought and flood occurred with synchronicity. After the temperature mutations, the frequency of extreme flood reduced significantly, but the frequency of extreme drought increased significantly. Using markov model, we predict the trend of drought and flood change over time, the probability of normal is the largest, and the probability of drought is greater than the flood. (3) The main spatial distribution of drought and flood is the same phase of all, the reverse phase of north and south, the reverse phase of east and west. The interannual tendency of the drought/flood and the precipitation were almost the same. In spring, the trend of drying was gradually serious from north to south; in summer, the trend of humidifying reduced gradually from Xihua-Nanyang toward southeast and northwest respectively; in autumn, the whole area presented a trend of dry; in winter, the trend of humidifying was gradually serious from southwest to northeast.