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  • CN 62-1070/P
  • ISSN 1000-694X
  • 双月刊 创刊于1981年
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古气候与环境演变

基于历史文献的1470-2008年中国西北地区气候干湿序列分区重建

  • 何则 ,
  • 何元庆 ,
  • 王世金 ,
  • 庞娟 ,
  • 辛惠娟 ,
  • 刘婧
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  • 1. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室, 甘肃 兰州 730000;
    2. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;
    3. 兰州理工大学, 甘肃 兰州 730030
何则(1992-),男,陕西宝鸡人,硕士研究生,主要从事冰川与气候变化研究。E-mail:heze@lzb.ac.cn

收稿日期: 2015-04-23

  修回日期: 2015-06-27

  网络出版日期: 2016-09-20

基金资助

中国科学院重点部署项目(KJZD-EW-G0304);冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室自主课题(SKKLCS-ZZ-2016);国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(41421061);国家社会科学基金面上项目(14BGL137);中国科学院国家外国专家局创新团队国际合作伙伴计划项目

Reconstruction and Comparative Analysis of Dry/Wet Series during 1470-2008 in Northwest China

  • He Ze ,
  • He Yuanqing ,
  • Wang Shijin ,
  • Pang Juan ,
  • Xin Huijuan ,
  • Liu Jing
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  • 1. State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    3. Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou 730030, China

Received date: 2015-04-23

  Revised date: 2015-06-27

  Online published: 2016-09-20

摘要

基于历史文献中的旱涝灾害记录,采用5级制划分的旱涝灾害等级,使用系统聚类法将中国西北地区19个站点划分为7个分区,利用湿润指数公式重建了西北地区7个分区1470-2008年的年分辨率干湿变化序列,比较分析了各分区干湿气候变化的阶段特征、周期性及跃变现象。结果表明:重建序列信度较高,可用作气候干湿变化研究。西北地区7个分区1470-2008年干湿变化存在着11 a、25~35 a和80~100 a的3类周期变化。其中,11 a和25~35 a的两个周期变化在整个分析时间段内表现得较为稳定;80~100 a的周期变化则表现的较不稳定。世纪尺度和气候代尺度的跃变信号各区皆有出现,位于研究区两边的陕西和玉树地区出现最少,宁夏和格尔木地区次之;位置居中的兰州、张掖、西宁等地区跃变信号出现最多,是气候干湿变化的敏感地带。检测出的干湿跃变信号主要集中在17世纪前后,近百年气候干湿变化则相对稳定。

本文引用格式

何则 , 何元庆 , 王世金 , 庞娟 , 辛惠娟 , 刘婧 . 基于历史文献的1470-2008年中国西北地区气候干湿序列分区重建[J]. 中国沙漠, 2016 , 36(5) : 1278 -1285 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2015.00150

Abstract

Based on the historical record, dry/wet series since 1470-2008 AD in Northwest China were reconstructed and analyzed. The dry/wet series for 7 regions are expressed by five grades, and dry/wet climate is obtained from a cluster analysis on annual data during 1470-2008 at 19 stations in Northwest China. The variation feature of the dry/wet series, such as phase characteristics, periodicity and abrupt change, are presented. The results show that the reconstruction of sequence reliability is high, and it can be used as a dry/wet climate change research. Wavelet analysis shows that those periodicities existed in the last 500 years, such as the periods of around 11 year, 25-35 year, 80-100 year. Among them, 11 years and 35 years periodicities in the whole analysis period are relatively stable than 80-100 years periodicities. The signs of abrupt changes in the 7 regional dry/wet series were detected by moving t-test. It is indicated that abrupt climatic changes have occurred for every regions in Northwest China during 1470-2008 AD. Both edge of the study area, such as Shaanxi and Yushu, abrupt signal appears fewest times; Ningxia and Golmud is second; the signal appears most times in the middle study area such as Lanzhou, Zhang ye, Xining. It means middle area is the sensitive area of dry/wet climate change. The dry/wet abrupt signal mainly concentrated in the 17th century, dry/wet climate change in recent century is relatively stable.

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