准确预测干旱区地下水埋深，对区域地下水资源的合理开发利用与生态环境保护具有十分重要的意义。以额济纳盆地3个地下水埋深观测井为对象，运用小波变换与支持向量机耦合模型（WA-SVM）对观测井未来1个月的地下水埋深进行了短期预测。为检验WA-SVM的有效性，将模拟结果与未经小波变换的SVM模型进行了对比。结果表明：在对干旱区地下水埋深进行短期预测时，相较于SVM模型，WA-SVM模型的预测精度显著提高。WA-SVM模型在干旱区地下水埋深预测中有更好的适用性，可以为干旱地区地下水埋深动态预测提供新的方法和思路，是资料有限的条件下地下水埋深预测的有效方法。
Prediction of monthly groundwater depth plays an important role in the reasonable utilization and management of groundwater water resources and ecological environmental protection. In this study, a monthly groundwater depth prediction model was built to predict the groundwater depth in 3 typical groundwater monitoring wells of the Ejin Basin by using wavelet-support vector machine (WA-SVM). In order to test the validity of the developed model, comparison was made between the WA-SVM model and the SVM model in terms of different evaluation criteria during validation period. Results showed that performances obtained by WA-SVM were satisfactory and WA-SVM model performed better than SVM model. Finally, it can be concluded that the WA-SVM model we had developed may be considered as an effective tool to establish a short-term monthly groundwater depth forecasting model in semiarid mountain regions where have few meteorological observatories.
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