利用树木年轮重建阿勒泰地区1794-2012年降水量

牛军强; 袁玉江; 陈峰; 张瑞波; 尚华明; 张同文; 喻树龙; 姜盛夏; 秦莉; 范子昂

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2015.00276

中国沙漠 >

2016 , Vol. 36 >Issue 6: 1555 - 1563

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2015.00276

古气候与环境演变

利用树木年轮重建阿勒泰地区1794-2012年降水量

牛军强 ,
袁玉江 ,
陈峰 ,
张瑞波 ,
尚华明 ,
张同文 ,
喻树龙 ,
姜盛夏 ,
秦莉 ,
范子昂

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1. 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所中国气象局树木年轮理化研究重点开放实验室/新疆树木年轮生态实验室, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830002;
2. 新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830054

牛军强(1987-),男,甘肃甘谷人,硕士研究生,主要从事树木年轮气候学研究。E-mail:niujq01@163.com

收稿日期: 2015-11-19

修回日期: 2015-12-04

网络出版日期: 2016-11-20

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目（41275120，40975056）；中国气象局气候变化专项（CCSF201438）；国家公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201206014）；国家科技支撑计划项目（2012BAC23B01）

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Reconstruction of Precipitation during 1794-2012 from Tree-Rings in the Altay Prefecture

Niu Junqiang ,
Yuan Yujiang ,
Chen Feng ,
Zhang Ruibo ,
Shang Huaming ,
Zhang Tongwen ,
Yu Shulong ,
Jiang Shengxia ,
Qin Li ,
Fan Ziang

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1. Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration;Xinjiang Laboratory of Tree Ring Ecology, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China;
2. College of Geography and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, China

Received date: 2015-11-19

Revised date: 2015-12-04

Online published: 2016-11-20

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摘要

利用阿勒泰地区3个采样点的西伯利亚云杉（Picea obovata）树轮样本，建立了区域树轮宽度标准化年表。单相关普查发现，阿勒泰地区区域树轮宽度标准化年表与该区域5个气象站上年7月至当年6月降水量相关显著（R=0.714，P<0.00001）。用区域树轮宽度标准化年表可较好地重建该区域上年7月至当年6月的降水量，解释方差达51.0%，验证表明降水重建序列是可信的。重建序列经历了4个偏湿期和4个偏干期。存在2.2～2.5 a的显著周期（P<0.05）及146、2.8、2.1、2.0 a的较显著周期。在1889年发生从少到多的突变。空间相关分析表明重建结果对阿勒泰地区降水具有较好的代表性。重建结果与阿尔泰山、天山中部地区、吉尔吉斯斯坦东部天山北坡的降水变化趋势和干湿阶段具有较好的一致性，与PDSI变化趋势也有较好的一致性。

关键词： 阿勒泰地区; 西伯利亚云杉(Picea obovata); 标准化年表; 降水重建

本文引用格式

牛军强 , 袁玉江 , 陈峰 , 张瑞波 , 尚华明 , 张同文 , 喻树龙 , 姜盛夏 , 秦莉 , 范子昂 . 利用树木年轮重建阿勒泰地区1794-2012年降水量[J]. 中国沙漠, 2016 , 36(6) : 1555 -1563 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2015.00276

Abstract

Picea obovata Tree-ring chronologies at three sites were developed for from the Altay Prefecture, and then a regional tree-ring width chronology was established. Single correlation census shows that the correlation between the regional tree-ring chronology and precipitation from previous July to current June is significant with the best single correlation coefficient of 0.714 (P<0.00001). From the regional tree-ring standard chronology, precipitation in the Altay Prefecture from previous July to current June can be reconstructed. With an explanation variance of 51.0%, verifications have shown that the reconstructed precipitation series was reliable. The reconstructed precipitation series have 4 wet periods and 4 dry periods. There were significant change periods of 2.2-2.5 a (P<0.05) and 146, 2.8, 2.1, and 2.0 a (P<0.01). The reconstructed precipitation had an abrupt change in 1889 from less to more. The reconstructed precipitation series is well representational to precipitation in the Altay Prefecture, and its precipitation change trend and dry/wet periods were consistent with reconstructed precipitation series in Altay Mountains, the middle Tianshan Mountains, the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in eastern Kyrgyzstan and PDSI series.

Key words： Altay Prefecture; Picea obovata; standardization width chronology; precipitation reconstruction

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