以渭干河流域水系中的库车河兰干站、渭干河黑孜水库站、渭干河千佛洞（合成）水库站为例，对R/S和Mann-Kendall法用于水文时间序列存在的不足进行了讨论，提出了将这两种方法相结合来分析水文时间序列的变化趋势。结果表明：库车河兰干站、渭干河黑孜水库站、渭干河千佛洞（合成）水库站赫斯特指数0 < H < 0.5、统计量UFk>0，未来径流量呈显著下降趋势，渭-库绿洲的自然和人为因素对该地区的生态水文产生一定影响。
Every river system has its own unique flow variation. In this paper, we discussed the problem of the R/S and Mann-Kendall method used in hydrological time series, and presented a method of the combination of R/S and Mann-Kendall to analyze future trend characteristics of hydrological time series, taking the Langan Reservoir Station, Heizi Reservoir Station, Thousand Buddha Cave (synthetic) Reservoir Station as examples. The results show that:the Hearst index for the three stations were all less than 0.5, UFk were all more than 0, indicating a significant decline flow in future.
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