采用1960-2012年黄河源径流、降水数据，以过程线法、集中度和集中期等方法分析黄河沿以上、黄河沿-吉迈、吉迈-玛曲、玛曲-唐乃亥等4个区段降水、径流的演变特征，并从降水的产流能力、时滞相关和集中期响应等角度分析径流对降水的响应。结果表明：黄河源径流汛期占比年际变化趋势自上游各区段呈不显著的增加-减少-增加-减少的特征。吉迈以上径流量年际变化呈不显著增加，吉迈以下呈减少趋势。各区段径流集中期均有不同程度的提前。下游径流集中期早于上游。黄河源汛期降水占比呈不显著下降趋势。4个区段自上游降水年际变化呈显著增加-显著增加-不显著减少-不显著增加的特征。降水的集中度分布较径流更为集中，且有不显著减少趋势。各区段降水的产流能力在20世纪80年代末至90年代中期出现弱化趋势，中上游在2005年左右降水的产流能力转为较分析时段初期有增强的趋势，而中下游一直较分析时段初期减小。不同区段年径流量与不同统计时段降水量的依存关系不同。黄河源玛曲以上径流相对于降水的集中期滞后天数呈不显著减少，玛曲-唐乃亥滞后天数略有增加。
The runoff change and responses to precipitation in the source regions,-huangheyan, Huangheyan-Jimai, Jimai-Maqu and Maqu-Tangnaihai, of the Yellow River were investigated. The results showed that:The flood season runoff varied annually in the studied area as a whole. The runoff increased in the Jimai station, but decreased in Jimai-tangnaihai. Concentrated period of runoff in all segments came earlier and the trend in the downstream was more obvious than that in the upstream. The flood season precipitation declined with a significant increase, significant increase, decrease, significant increase for the four segments, respectively. The concentration degree of precipitation was higher than that of runoff. The runoff generation capacity of precipitation weakened from the late 1980s to the middle 1990s.The runoff generation capacity of precipitation increased around 2005 compared with the early stage of the analysis period in the middle and upper reaches. While reduced in middle and lower reaches. The relationship between annual runoff and precipitation in different periods were different. Lagging days of concentrated period of runoff relative to precipitation reduced in Maqu, but increased in Maqu-Tangnaihai.
[1] Immerzeel W W,van Beek L P,Bierkens M F.Climate change will affect the asian water towers[J].Science,2010,328(5984):1382-1385.
[2] Piao S L,Ciais P,Huang Y,et al.The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China[J].Nature,2010,467:43-51.
[3] 张利平,陈小凤,赵志鹏,等.气候变化对水文水资源影响的研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(3):60-67.
[4] 姚檀栋,刘晓东,王宁练.青藏高原地区的气候变化幅度问题[J].科学通报,2000,45(1):98-106.
[5] 冯松,汤懋苍,王冬梅.青藏高原是我国气候变化启动区的新证据[J].科学通报,1998,43(6):633-636.
[6] 韦志刚,黄荣辉,董文杰.青藏高原气温和降水的年际和年代际变化[J].大气科学,2003,27(2):157-170.
[7] 吴绍洪,尹云鹤,郑度,等.青藏高原近30年气候变化趋势[J].地理学报,2005,60(1):3-11.
[8] 姚慧茹,李栋梁.1971-2012年青藏高原春季风速的年际变化及对气候变暖的响应[J].气象学报,2016,74(1):60-75.
[9] 贺瑞敏,张建云,鲍振鑫,等.海河流域河川径流对气候变化的响应机理[J].水科学进展,2015,26(1):1-9.
[10] 夏智宏,刘敏,王苗.1990s以来气候变化和人类活动对洪湖流域径流影响的定量辨识[J].湖泊科学,2014,26(4):515-521.
[11] 李林,申红艳,戴升,等.黄河源区径流对气候变化的响应及未来趋势预测[J].地理学报,2011(9):1261-1269.
[12] 凌洪波,徐海量,张青青,等.1957-2007年新疆天山山区气候变化对径流的影响[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(11):1908-1917.
[13] 花婷,王训明,郎丽丽,等.甘肃省气温与降水变化趋势及其对主要流域径流量的影响[J].中国沙漠,2015,35(3):744-752.
[14] 徐浩杰,杨太保,柴绍豪.1961-2010年讨赖河山区径流变化特征及其驱动因素[J].中国沙漠,2014,34(3):878-884.
[15] 董晓辉,姚治君,陈传友.黄河源区径流变化及其对降水的响应[J].资源科学,2007,29(3):67-73.
[16] 唐颖,张磊磊,张建云.近50 a来黄河源区降水、气温及径流变化分析[J].人民黄河,2015(37)7:9-12.
[17] 时兴合,秦宁生,汪青春.黄河上游径流变化特征及其影响因素初步分析[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(4):690-697.
[18] 张国宏,王晓丽,郭慕萍,等.近60 a黄河流域地表径流变化特征及其与气候变化的关系[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(7):91-95.
[19] 刘贤赵,李嘉竹,宿庆,等.基于集中度与集中期的径流年内分配研究[J].地理科学,2007,27(6):791-795.
[20] 段水强,范世雄,曹广超,等.1976-2014年黄河源区湖泊的变化特征及成因分析[J].冰川冻土,2015,37(3):745-755.
[21] 赵仁荣,陈海潮,朱松立,等.黄河源区径流变化及原因分析[J].人民黄河,2007,29(4):15-16.
[22] 谢昌卫,齐三红.长江-黄河源寒区径流量波动变化的气候因素分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2007,16(2):251-255.
[23] 李夫星,陈东,汤秋鸿.黄河流域水文气象要素变化及东亚夏季风的关系[J].水科学进展,2015,26(4):481-490.
甘公网安备 62010202000688号