A1B情景下东亚地区未来春季沙尘变化趋势预估
收稿日期: 2015-06-29
修回日期: 2015-10-13
网络出版日期: 2017-03-20
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目（41405135）
Prediction on Dust in Spring during 2015-2100 over East Asia under AlB Scenario
Received date: 2015-06-29
Revised date: 2015-10-13
Online published: 2017-03-20
采用区域气候与沙尘耦合模式RegCM4-Dust，模拟研究了A1B情景下东亚地区未来（2015-2100年）春季沙尘变化趋势。结果表明：（1）总体上，东亚沙尘源区起尘通量与沉降通量存在明显的振荡特征，而沙尘光学厚度呈现显著的波动减小趋势；源区下游沙尘光学厚度和沉降通量均呈现显著的波动增大趋势。（2）沙尘子源区中，仅塔克拉玛干沙漠及周边地区起尘通量有显著波动减少趋势，速度达-2.1%/10a；萨雷耶西克阿特劳沙漠和呼伦贝尔沙地沙尘光学厚度减小速度最快，分别达到-2.8%/10a、-2.3%/10a。（3）未来，中国华北南部、黄淮以及长江中下游地区以及中国东、南部近海春季沙尘光学厚度增速均为1.5%/10a；中国近海沙尘沉降通量显著上升，速度达1.9%/10a。（4）地面风速尤其是最大风速变化是导致起尘通量变化的主要因素，而影响光学厚度的主要因素是地面最大风速。
宿兴涛 , 张志标 , 欧磊 . A1B情景下东亚地区未来春季沙尘变化趋势预估[J]. 中国沙漠, 2017 , 37(2) : 315 -320 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2015.00226
A regional climate model RegCM4 coupled with an on-line dust module is used to predict the future trend of East Asian dust in spring from 2015 to 2100. Based on the simulation results, there generally exists obvious oscillation characteristics of the dust emission flux (DEF) and dust deposition flux (DDF). The model also captures the significant fluctuating and descending trend of the dust optical depth (DOD) over East Asian dust sources. At the same time, the DOD and DDF appear significant fluctuating and ascending trend over downstream areas of dust sources. Only the DEF over the Taklimakan Desert and its circumjacent areas presents significant fluctuating and descending trend over all East Asian dust sub-sources. The maximal falling velocity of DOD occurs over Saryesik-Atyrau Desert and Hulun Buir Desert with the values up to -2.8%/10a and -2.3/10a respectively. In addition, the rising velocity of DOD is 1.5%/10a over southern North China, Huanghuai Area, the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and eastern and southern Chinese offshore. The significant rise (1.9%/10a) of DDF may do harm to the marine environment of our country. Compared to the maximum surface wind speed for DOD, the mean surface wind speed especially maximum surface wind speed are the main factors of the DEF.
Key words： AlB scenario; regional climate model; dust; future prediction
[1] Dentener F J,Carmichael G R,Zhang Y,et al.Role of mineral aerosol as a reactive surface in the global troposphere[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1996,101(D17):22869-22889.
[2] Dickerson R R,Kondragunta S,Stenchikov G,et al.The impact of aerosol on solar ultraviolet radiation and photochemical smog[J].Science,1997,278:827-830.
[3] Fung I,Meyn S,Tegen I,et al.Iron supply and demand in the upper ocean[J].Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2000,14:281-296.
[4] Prospero J M,Ginoux P,Torres O,et al.Environmental characterization of global sources of atmospheric soil dust identified with the Nimbus 7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) absorbing aerosol product[J].Reviews of Geophysics,2002,40(1):G000095.
[5] 潘耀忠,范一大,史培军,等.近50年来中国沙尘暴空间分异格局及季相分布——初步研究[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(1):1-8.
[6] Li J,Carlson B E,Lacis A A.A study on the temporal and spatial variability of absorbing aerosols using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and Ozone Monitoring Instrument Aerosol Index data [J]. Journal of Geophysical Research,2009,114(D09213):D011278.
[7] 王涛,吴薇,薛娴,等.近50年来中国北方沙漠化土地的时空变化[J].地理学报,2004,59(2):203-212.
[8] 张莉,任国玉.中国北方沙尘暴频数演化及其气候成因分析[J].气象学报,2003,61(6):744-750.
[9] 王小玲,翟盘茂.中国春季沙尘天气频数的时空变化及其与地面风压场的关系[J].气象学报,2004,62(1):96-103.
[10] Mahowald N M,Luo C.A less dusty future?[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2003,30(17):L017880.
[11] Mahowald N M,Muhs D R,Levis S,et al.Change in atmospheric mineral aerosols in response to climate:last glacial period,preindustrial,modern,and doubled carbon dioxide climates[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2006,111(D10202):D006653.
[12] Mahowald N M,Yoshioka M,Collins W D,et al.Climate response and radiative forcing from mineral aerosols during the last glacial maximum,pre-industrial,current and doubled-carbon dioxide climates[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2006,33(L20705):L026126.
[13] Tegen I,Werner M,Harrison S P,et al.Relative importance of climate and land use in determining present and future global soil dust emission[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2004,31(L05105):L019216.
[14] Woodward S,Roberts D L,Betts R A.A simulation of the effect of climate change-induced desertification on mineral dust aerosol[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2005,32(L18810):L023482.
[15] Zakey A S,Solmon F,Giorgi F.Implementation and testing of a desert dust module in a regional climate model[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2006,6:4687-4704.
[16] Zhang D F,Zakey A S,Gao X J,et al.Simulation of dust aerosol and its regional feedbacks over East Asia using a regional climate model[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2009,9:1095-1110.
[17] Su X T,Wang H J,Tao H R,et al.Simulation on the spatio-temporal distribution and emission flux of dust aerosol over East Asia in 2000-2009[J].Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions,2013,5(2):230-239.
[18] Tegen I,Lacis A A,Fung I.The influence of mineral aerosols from disturbed soils on the global radiation budget[J].Nature,1996,380:419-422.
[19] Ginoux P,Chin M,Tegen I,et al.Sources and distributions of dust aerosols simulated with the GOCART model[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2001,106(D17):20255-20273.
[20] Mahowald N M,Rivera G D R,Luo C.Comment on “Relative importance of climate and land use in determining present and future global soil dust emission” by I.Tegen et al[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2004,31(24):L24105.
[21] 慈龙骏.中国的荒漠化及其防治[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2005.
[22] Zhang X Y,Gong S L,Zhao T L,et al.Sources of Asian dust and role of climate change versus desertification in Asian dust emission[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2003,30(24):L018206.
[23] Wang X M,Zhou Z J,Dong Z B,et al.Do humans create mineral dust in northwest China?[J].Environmental Geology,2005,48:609-614.
[24] Shao Y.Physics and Modelling of Wind Erosion[M].Norwell,USA:Kluwer,2000.
[25] 曾庆存,董超华,彭公炳,等.千里黄云:东亚沙尘暴研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.
[26] Miller R L,Perlwitz J,Tegen I.Feedback upon dust emission by dust radiative forcing through the planetary boundary layer[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2004,109(D24209):D004912.
[27] Su X T,Wang H J,Zhang Z B.Radiative forcing and temperature response of dust aerosols over East Asia in the latest decade[J].Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions,2012,4(4):351-356.
[28] 宿兴涛,许丽人,张志标,等.东亚地区沙尘气溶胶对降水的影响研究[J].高原气象,2016,35(1):211-219.
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
©2018中国沙漠 编辑部
地址: 兰州市天水中路8号 (730000)
电话：0931-8267545
Email：caiedit@lzb.ac.cn;desert@lzb.ac.cn
甘公网安备 62010202000688号