大果圆柏(Juniperus tibetica)树轮记录的1606-2012年长江源区4-6月帕尔默干旱指数变化

黄小梅; 肖丁木; 秦宁生

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2015.00284

中国沙漠 >

2017 , Vol. 37 >Issue 4: 784 - 792

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2015.00284

天气与气候

大果圆柏(Juniperus tibetica)树轮记录的1606-2012年长江源区4-6月帕尔默干旱指数变化

黄小梅 ,
肖丁木 ,
秦宁生

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1. 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室, 四川成都 610072;
2. 成都信息工程大学, 高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室, 四川成都 610225;
3. 四川省气象台, 四川成都 610072;
4. 四川省气候中心, 四川成都 610072

黄小梅(1987-),女,四川绵阳人,硕士,助理研究员,主要从事气候变化和气候诊断研究。E-mail:hxmlovely@163.com

收稿日期: 2015-11-24

修回日期: 2015-12-17

网络出版日期: 2017-07-20

基金资助

高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室开放课题（PAEKL-2017-C2）；国家自然科学基金项目（41375116， 41405077）

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Palmer Drought Severity Index in April-June Reconstruction Based on Juniperus Tibetica Tree-ring during 1606-2012 in the Yangtze River Source Region,China

Huang Xiaomei ,
Xiao Dingmu ,
Qin Ningsheng

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1. Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu 610072, China;
2. Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China;
3. Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072, China;
4. Climate Center of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China

Received date: 2015-11-24

Revised date: 2015-12-17

Online published: 2017-07-20

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摘要

利用采集自青海省治多县立新乡的大果圆柏（Juniperus tibetica）建立树轮宽度标准化年表（STD）。相关分析表明，长江源区4-6月帕尔默干旱指数（PDSI）与树轮宽度标准化年表具有良好的相关性，相关系数达到0.597（建模期，1960-2012年）。利用标准化年表重建了长江源区过去407年的4-6月PDSI指数变化，重建方程方差解释量达36.0%，且方程稳定。重建的4-6月PDSI指数序列在过去407年间先后经历了10个偏湿阶段和11个偏干阶段。重建序列与整个青藏高原中北部干湿变化具有较好的一致性，具有较好的空间代表性。多窗谱分析表明，重建的长江源区PDSI指数序列具有30~50 a、3~3.3 a和2.1~2.7 a的显著周期变化。相关分析表明，长江源区干湿状况与同期赤道中太平洋、热带印度洋、西北太平洋黑潮区海温变化密切相关。

关键词： 长江源区; 树轮宽度; 帕尔默干旱指数(PDSI)

本文引用格式

黄小梅 , 肖丁木 , 秦宁生 . 大果圆柏(Juniperus tibetica)树轮记录的1606-2012年长江源区4-6月帕尔默干旱指数变化[J]. 中国沙漠, 2017 , 37(4) : 784 -792 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2015.00284

Abstract

Tree-ring width standardized chronology is created by Juniperus tibetica which was collected in Lixin Township,Zhiduo County,Qinghai Province of China.Correlation analysis indicates that there is significantly positive correlation between PDSI (April-June) and tree-ring width (r=0.597,1960-2012).The tree-ring width standardized chronology is used to reconstruct PDSI in April-June in the Yangtze River source region for the period of 1606-2012,and it explaines the 36.0% of the total PDSI variance during the common period.There are ten wet periods and eleven dry periods in the reconstructed PDSI sequence over the past 407 years.Spatial analysis shows that the PDSI index in the Yangtze River source region has strong common signals for the north central Tibetan Plateau.Using the multi-taper method (MTM) spectrum analysis,it is found that the reconstructed PDSI has 30-50 a,3-3.3 a,2.1-2.7 a cycles.Correlation analysis shows that the dry-wet change of Yangtze River source region is closely related with simultaneous sea surface temperature anomalous in the central equatorial Pacific,the tropical Indian Ocean and the Kuroshio region of northwest Pacific.

Key words： Yangtze River source region; tree-ring width; PDSI

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