By using analytic hierarchy process and synthetic grade weighting process based on climate data, land use data and vegetation coverage index desertification risk in Horqin sandy land was assessment. Results showed that the average desertification risk index were 0.420, 0.428, 0.437 in the year of 1995, 2000, 2010, respectively. Desertification risk of Horqin sandy land was high grade in 1995 to 2010, and counties of low desertification risk grades distributed in the north and west, while high desertification risk grades distributed in the south and east. Desertification risk grades of different counties showed a discrepancy from 1995-2010. Desertification risk grade of Kailu County increased, while desertification risk grade of Zhalute Banner decreased, Aohan Banner, Balinyou Banner, Horqin District and Kezuozhong County showed a fluctuant change, the other counties had not change. Area of medium desertification risk grade and high desertification risk grade decreased by 16 544.76 km2 and 4 223.25 km2 from 1995 to 2010, while area of low desertification risk grade and extreme high desertification risk grade increased by 16 544.76 km2, 4 223.25 km2, respectively. The main factors that affect regional desertification risk were annual mean precipitation, annual mean wind speed, vegetation coverage index, area of sandy land and grazing capacity, and increase vegetation coverage index contribute to the decrease of desertification risk.
[1] Rubio J L,Bochet E. Desertification indicators as diagnosis criteria for desertification risk assessment in Europe[J].Journal of Arid Environments,1998,39:113-120.
[2] Zhao X Y,Wang S K,Luo Y Y,et al.Toward sustainable desertification reversion:a case study in Horqin Sandy Land ofnorthern China[J].Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions,2015,7(1):23-28.
[3] 王涛,宋翔,颜长珍,等.近35 a来中国北方土地沙漠化趋势的遥感分析[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(6):1351-1356.
[4] 常学礼,蔡明玉,张继平,等.科尔沁沙地典型地区人工造林对沙漠化过程的影响[J].中国沙漠,2009,29(4):611-616.
[5] 赵哈林,张铜会,崔建垣,等.近40 a我国北方农牧交错区气候变化及其与土地沙漠化的关系[J].中国沙漠,2000,20(增刊):1-6.
[6] 薛娴,王涛,吴薇,等.中国北方农牧交错区沙漠化发展过程及其成因分析[J].中国沙漠,2005,25(3):320-328.
[7] Chen Q Y,Liu J L.Development process and perspective on ecological risk assessment[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2014,34:239-245.
[8] 殷贺,王仰麟,蔡佳亮,等.区域生态风险评价研究进展[J].生态学杂志,2009,28(5):969-975.
[9] 张雅洲,谢小平.基于RS和GIS的南四湖生态风险评价[J].生态学报,2015,35(5):1371-1377.
[10] 李谢辉,王磊,李景宜.基于GIS的渭河下游河流沿线区域生态风险评价[J].生态学报,2009,29(10):5523-5534.
[11] 臧淑英,梁欣,冯仲科.黑龙江大庆市生态风险评价研究[J].北京林业大学学报,2005,27(增刊2):58-62.
[12] Salihoglu G,Karaer.Ecological risk assessment and problem formulation for lake Uluabat,a Ramsar state in Turkey[J].Environmental Management,2004,33(6):899-910.
[13] Malekmohammadi B,Blouchi L R.Ecological risk assessment of wetland ecosystems using multi criteria decision making and geographic information system[J].Ecological Indicators,2014,41:133-144.
[14] 王永芳.科尔沁沙地耕地沙漠化生态风险评价[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古师范大学,2012.
[15] Kosmas C,Kairis O,Karavitis C,et al.Evaluation and Selection of Indicators for Land Degradation and Desertification Monitoring:Methodological Approach[J].Environmental Management,2013,54(5):971-982.
[16] Rubio J L,Bochet E.Desertification indicators as diagnosis criteria for desertification risk assessment in Europe[J].Journal of Arid Environments,1998,39(2):113-120.
[17] Han Z W,Wang T,Yan CH Z H,et al.Change trends for desertified lands in the Horqin sandy land at the beginning of the twenty-first century[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2010,59:1749-1757.
[18] 左小安,赵哈林,赵学勇,等.科尔沁沙地不同尺度上沙丘景观格局动态变化分析[J].中国沙漠,2009,29(5):785-795.
[19] 段翰晨,王涛,薛娴,等.科尔沁沙地沙漠化时空演变及其景观格局——以内蒙古自治区奈曼旗为例[J].地理学报,2012,67(7):917-928.
[20] 张桂英,王朝敏,卞仁江,等.科尔沁沙地最典型地区50年气候变化分析[J].中国农学通报,2012,28(23):287-290.
[21] 王涛,吴薇,赵哈林,等.科尔沁地区现代沙漠化过程的驱动因素分析[J].中国沙漠,2004,24(5):519-528.
[22] 周利军,张雪萍,陈设.扎龙自然保护区土地利用与生态风险评价[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(2):186-190.
[23] 佟哈斯毕力格.锡林郭勒草原荒漠化灾害风险评价[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古师范大学,2013.
[24] 卢晓宁,洪佳,王玲玲,等.复杂地形地貌背景区干旱风险评价[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(1):162-169.
[25] 段翰晨,王涛,薛娴,等.基于RS与GIS的科尔沁沙地沙漠化时空演变[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(2):470-477.
[26] 乌兰图雅,乌敦,那音太.20世纪科尔沁的人口变化及其特征分析[J].地理学报,2007,62(4):418-426.
[27] 于显双,赵明,陈凤臻,等.基于GIS的北方农牧交错带荒漠化遥感动态监测与成因分析——以内蒙古通辽市为例[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(4):107-111.
[28] 张华,佟文嘉,王南,等.基于退耕还草背景的科尔沁沙地土地利用景观格局分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(6):96-101.
[29] 康文平,刘树林,段翰晨.基于MODIS时间序列数据的沙漠化遥感监测及沙漠化土地图谱分析——以内蒙古中西部地区为例[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(2):307-318.
[30] 李爱敏,韩致文,许健,等.21世纪科尔沁沙地沙漠化土地变化趋势[J].地理学报,2006,9(61):976-984.
[31] 王娅,周立华,路慧玲,等.城镇化进程对沙漠化逆转趋势影响的动态计量分析——以宁夏盐池县为例[J].中国沙漠,2017,37(5):867-877.
[32] 包慧娟,包国权,田亮,等.科尔沁沙地沙漠化动态研究——以科尔沁左翼中旗为例[J].内蒙古大学学报:自然科学版,2004,35(2):172-176.