| 沙漠与沙漠化 |
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| Simulation of Urban Land Expansion Using CA Modelin Urumqi Metropolitan Area |
| ZHANG Xin-huan1, QI Yi2, YANG De-gang1, XU Jian-gang2 |
| 1.Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Urmqi 830000, China; 2.The Department of Urban and Region Planning, Nanjing University. Nanjing 210093, China |
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Abstract In the process of rapid urbanization, there is an evident trend that some adjacent cities in space develop together in China. Metropolitan Area is an outcome in this trend, with the central city as a core and developing with some other cities. Urumqi Metropolitan is locateed at the northern foot of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, China. It is an oasis Metropolitan formed in arid environment. With the development of Urumqi Metropolitan Area, the economic growth would lead to spatial pattern change evidently. The urban land expansion scale, direction, and way are becoming the focus of Urumqi Metropolitan Area development. Thus it is necessary to study on the urban land expansion using effective method to guide the regional develop sustainable. Based on the characteristics of urban land expansion of Urumqi Metropolitan Area, using the general method of CA, this paper builds a CA model improved to simulate the multi-urban land expansion in Metropolitan. To build the CA model which can reflect the rule and characteristics of Metropolitan, the urban expansion feature and influenced mechanism are considered while set transfer rules in CA model. The factors' mechanism are represented as macro limitation, middle adjustment and micro drive in transfer rule, which make the CA model reality in simulating the process of urban land expansion in Metropolitan. To match the social-economic data with spatial data in the CA model, the process of social-economic data converting to spatial data is explained in detail. Through simulating the urban land in 2006 year according to the data in 2002, the Lee-Sallee index indicating CA model precision reaches 76%, which means the model built in this paper can be used to forecast the urban growth in future. The CA model build in this study is applied in urban land expansion for three scenario such as economy-first, ecology-first and planning-first, and the different simulation results reveal that developing modes will form different spatial pattern in Urumqi Metropolitan Area.
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Received: 23 April 2008
Published: 07 September 2009
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2009, Vol. 29 
