| 水文与水资源 |
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| Analysis on Characteristics of Runoff Time Series in Manas River, Xinjiang Province |
| LING Hong-bo1,2, XU Hai-liang1, ZHANG Qing-qing1,2, SHI Wei1,2 |
| 1.Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; 2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
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Abstract Based on the monthly runoff data for 54 years of the Kenswatt hydrological station on Manas river, we studied the annual trend, abrupt change and future trend by making use of parametric test, nonparametric test, and R/S analysis, and the annual distribution characteristics of runoff were depicted by using several correlative indices. Results showed that the annual runoff changed abruptly at 1994, agreeing with the conclusion from analysis on the accumulative anomaly index; the Hurst coefficient of the annual runoff was 0.7747 (H>0.5), indicating that the runoff was of persistence and would still keep an increasing trend; the annual runoff at the Kenswatt station mainly concentrated in summer (June-August), and the concentration degree was more discriminable and sensitive than the index of heterogeneity, and all the indices were correlative.
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Received: 01 August 2010
Published: 20 November 2011
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2011, Vol. 31 
