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JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH  2012, Vol. 32 Issue (6): 1738-1742    DOI:
Weather and Climate     
Correction of Solar Radiation Forecast and Photovoltaic Power Prediction in Ningxia by Localization WRF Model
SUN Yin-chuan1, BAI Yong-qing2, ZUO He-jiang1
1.Ningxia Climate Center, Yinchuan 750002, China;
2.Hubei Meteorological Service Center, Wuhan 430074, China
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Abstract  

In order to carry out solar photovoltaic power generation forecast service in Ningxia of northwestern China, we used the combination of EOF analysis and MOS forecast method to correct the shortwave radiation WRF model based on the localized WRF model and power generation data from the local photovoltaic power station, and established an hourly photovoltaic power prediction model. Forecast revised by the EOF-MOS method could cause the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in solar irradiance forecast reduced from 24% to 15%, and the MAPE in photovoltaic power forecast be stable around 22%. The forecast method presents a good prediction result, especially for the forecast in frequently variable weather.

Key words:  solar energy      irradiance      photovoltaic power      EOF-MOS model     
Received:  13 February 2012      Published:  11 May 2012
ZTFLH:  TK511  

Cite this article: 

SUN Yin-chuan1, BAI Yong-qing2, ZUO He-jiang1. Correction of Solar Radiation Forecast and Photovoltaic Power Prediction in Ningxia by Localization WRF Model. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2012, 32(6): 1738-1742.

URL: 

http://www.desert.ac.cn/EN/     OR     http://www.desert.ac.cn/EN/Y2012/V32/I6/1738

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