Tree-ring based precipitation reconstruction over the past 198 years in the Hulunbuir Sandy Land， Northeast China

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2025.00118

Journal of Desert Research ›› 2026, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (2): 43-52.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2025.00118

Tree-ring based precipitation reconstruction over the past 198 years in the Hulunbuir Sandy Land， Northeast China

Shuo Wen¹^,²(), Xiao Zhang¹^,², Xiaofen Liu³, Hanzhi Li¹^,², Dianxue Qiao⁴, Lei Ha⁴, Yinglin Mu⁴, Xiaoyan Shang¹^,², Wenjian Zhou¹^,², Xiaohui Yang¹^,², Zhongjie Shi¹^,²()

^1.Research Institute of Ecological Conservation and Restoration，Chinese Academy of Forestry，Beijing 100091，China
^2.Research Institute of Desertification Studies，Chinese Academy of Forestry，Beijing 100091，China
^3.School of Landscape and Ecological Engineering，Hebei University of Engineering，Handan 056038，Hebei，China
^4.Administration of Weinahe Nature Reserve of Inner Mongolia，Ewenke Autonomous Banner 021100，Inner Mongolia，China

Received:2025-04-10 Revised:2025-07-14 Online:2026-03-20 Published:2026-04-13
Contact: Zhongjie Shi

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the ring-width chronology of Pinus sylvestris var. mongholica in the Hulunbuir sandy land， this paper analyzed the correlation between the tree radial growth and the temperature and precipitation during 1952-2018. The results showed that the highest correlation （r=0.60， P<0.01） was found between the ring-width chronology and the precipitation from August of the previous year to July of the current year. And the precipitation history was reconstructed from August of the previous year to July of the current year over the past 198 years （1821-2018） in the Hulunbuir sandy land. The reconstruction equation explained 35.73% of the variance of precipitation from August of the previous year to July of the current year in the instrumental period， and was reliable and stable by the validation using the "leave-one-out cross-validation method" and "segmentation independent test method". The precipitation over the past 198 years had experienced 5 wet-dry transition phases. The multi-taper spectrum analysis showed that the precipitation in this region has a periodicity of 5.9-6.0， 2.9 and 2.1 years over the past 198 years. Comparison with reconstructions from neighboring regions and spatial correlation analysis show that the present precipitation reconstruction sequence can better represent the precipitation changes in the study area.

Key words: tree-ring, precipitation reconstruction, Pinus sylvestris var. mongholica, Hulunbuir Sandy Land, boosted regression trees

CLC Number:

P467

Shuo Wen, Xiao Zhang, Xiaofen Liu, Hanzhi Li, Dianxue Qiao, Lei Ha, Yinglin Mu, Xiaoyan Shang, Wenjian Zhou, Xiaohui Yang, Zhongjie Shi. Tree-ring based precipitation reconstruction over the past 198 years in the Hulunbuir Sandy Land， Northeast China[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2026, 46(2): 43-52.

Figures/Tables 14

Fig.1 Location of sampling and meteorological station （A）， meteorological characteristics （B）

Table 1 Site and chronology information

样点	纬度/(°N)	经度/(°E)	海拔/m	时间区间	树芯/树
D01	49.104	120.388	683.1	1933—2018年	44/15
D02	49.070	120.372	690.8	1735—2018年	56/18
D03	49.038	120.378	664.9	1946—2018年	51/19
D04	48.976	120.373	747.5	1932—2018年	83/24

Table 2 Main statistical characteristic parameters of the residual chronology of Mongolian pine

年表样本量(芯/树)	平均敏感度MS	公共区间	所有样芯间平均相关系数(r₁)	树木内平均相关系数(r₂)	树木间平均相关系数(r₃)	信噪比	样本总体代表性
234/76	0.22	1946—2018年	0.47	0.76	0.47	93.88	0.99

Fig.2 Tree-ring width residual chronology （A）， sample size （B）， subsample signal strength （C）， and running series of average correlations （Rbar， D）

Fig.3 Correlation coefficients between the tree-ring residual chronology and meteorological factors during 1952-2018

Fig.4 Relative influence of meteorological factors for the tree-ring residual chronology

Table 3 Statistics of calibration and verification results

校准期				验证期
时段（年份）	R²	R $a d j s t 2$	F	时段（年份）	r	ST	ST₁	t	RE	CE
1952—2018	0.36	0.35	36.13^**	1952—2018	0.56^**	50/17^**	38/28	6.50^**	0.32	—
1952—1986	0.15	0.13	5.99^*	1987—2018	0.75^**	27/5^**	22/9^*	7.45^**	0.43	0.43
1989—2018	0.52	0.50	30.47^**	1952—1988	0.52^**	27/10^**	18/18	4.39^**	0.08	0.06

Table 3 Statistics of calibration and verification results

校准期				验证期
时段（年份）	R²	R $a d j s t 2$	F	时段（年份）	r	ST	ST₁	t	RE	CE
1952—2018	0.36	0.35	36.13^**	1952—2018	0.56^**	50/17^**	38/28	6.50^**	0.32	—
1952—1986	0.15	0.13	5.99^*	1987—2018	0.75^**	27/5^**	22/9^*	7.45^**	0.43	0.43
1989—2018	0.52	0.50	30.47^**	1952—1988	0.52^**	27/10^**	18/18	4.39^**	0.08	0.06

Fig.5 Observed and reconstructed precipitation during 1952-2018

Fig.6 Reconstructed precipitation and 21-year smoothed average reconstruction

Table 4 Dry and wet years of the Hulunbuir Sandy Land in the past 198 years

极端湿润年	年降水量重建值/mm	极端干旱年	年降水量重建值/mm
1856年	512.4	1855年	216.7
1875年	479.7	1857年	170.7
		1908年	189.0
		1926年	193.7
		1951年	222.9
		1987年	220.2

Fig.7 Power spectral （A） and wavelet （B） of the reconstructed precipitation

Fig.8 Spatial correlation fields of the observed （A） and reconstructed （B） precipitation with the gridded CRU TS 4.08 precipitation from previous August to current July during 1952-2018

Fig.9 Comparisons of the reconstructed precipitation or drought series from different studies

Fig.10 Cross-wavelet analysis between sunspot number and reconstructed precipitation

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Tree-ring based precipitation reconstruction over the past 198 years in the Hulunbuir Sandy Land， Northeast China

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