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JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH  2007, Vol. 27 Issue (1): 147-152    DOI:
天气与气候     
Analysis on Probability of Extreme Drought Period from May to September over Northwest China
WEI Feng1,2, DING Yu-guo3, WANG Jin-song1
1. Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China; Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730020, China; 2.Dingxi Meteorological Bureau, Dingxi 743000, Gansu, China; 3. Nanjing Information and Engineering University, Nanjing 210044, China
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Abstract  

The extreme drought period from May to September was counted form the daily precipitation data of 131 stations in Northwest China from 1961 to 2000. Further, we have studied the distribution of extreme drought period over Northwest China and have analyzed its correlation with total precipitation. The distribution of extreme drought period over Northwest China was simulated by the Gumbel Distribution Model by adopting Probability Weighted Method ( PWM) to estimated the parameters of distribution function. The results showed that the spatial distribution of mean extreme drought period and the distribution of annual precipitation in recent 40 years were generally reverse over the Northwest China, but the region with the shortest extreme drought period didn't superpose the most precipitation region in south Shaanxi; the shortest extreme drought period located in south Qinghai and south Gansu plateau, with high sea level elevation. The relationship between the extreme drought period and the total precipitation from May to September is negative. The distribution of extreme drought period once in 50 years and the distribution of probability more than 20-day extreme drought period is similar.

Key words:  length of extreme drought period      distribution of extreme value      estimation method of probability weight     
Received:  07 September 2005      Published:  20 January 2007
ZTFLH:  P426.614  
Articles by authors
WEI Feng
DING Yu-guo
WANG Jin-song

Cite this article: 

WEI Feng;DING Yu-guo;WANG Jin-song. Analysis on Probability of Extreme Drought Period from May to September over Northwest China. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2007, 27(1): 147-152.

URL: 

http://www.desert.ac.cn/EN/     OR     http://www.desert.ac.cn/EN/Y2007/V27/I1/147

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