A Verification on the Prediction Efficiency of GRAPES-SDM Dust-Storm Model Used in Recent Years
Received date: 2012-08-09
Revised date: 2012-10-28
Online published: 2013-01-20
By comparing the estimated forecasts by the GRAPES-SDM model and the observed data on sandstorm weather in North of China in the springs of 2008-2011, we tested the forecast product with synoptic verification method. The results showed that: (1) The forecasting ability of the GRAPES-SDM model was accurate in North of China in the spring of 2008, with high TS scores and prediction efficiency. (2) The forecasting effect in the Hetao region of Inner Mongolia, Hexi corridor of Gansu province was the best in spite of some failure prediction or over-intensified prediction happened, the model could forecast dust weathers in South Xinjiang Basin with less narrow belt range and less intensity than that observed, but often failed to predict the sandstorms in Qinghai. (3) The successful forecasts were in relation to those areas with more sandstorms, while the missing predictions were usually limited to those areas with occasional sandstorms, the failure prediction often appeared in eastern Xinjiang and middle-west Inner Mongolia. (4) The forecast ability of the GRAPES-SDM model performed well in predicting those dust weathers with large range, but poor in those scattered dust weathers. We also proposed some suggestions on improving the GRAPES-SDM model in regard to its accuracy.
Key words: GRAPES-SDM model; TS score; forecast effect verification
DUAN Hai-xia1 , ZHAO Jian-hua1 , LI Yao-hui1 , HUO Wen2 . A Verification on the Prediction Efficiency of GRAPES-SDM Dust-Storm Model Used in Recent Years[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2013 , 33(1) : 214 -222 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2013.00030
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