Appling SWAT Model to Explore the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Changes on the Hydrological Characteristics in Taohe River Basin

Wang Ying; Zhang Qiang; Wang Jinsong; Zhang Lei

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2015.00189

2017 , Vol. 37 >Issue 1: 175 - 185

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2015.00189

Appling SWAT Model to Explore the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Changes on the Hydrological Characteristics in Taohe River Basin

Wang Ying ,
Zhang Qiang ,
Wang Jinsong ,
Zhang Lei

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1. Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province/Key Open Laboratory of Arid Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China;
2. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;
3. State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-ecosystems/College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China

Received date: 2015-09-29

Revised date: 2015-12-14

Online published: 2017-01-20

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Abstract

Land use and climate changes are the important reasons for leads to the water resources change at a basin scale. This paper got a suitable model by calibrating distributed hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for Taohe River Basin. Take Taohe river in northwest China as an example, constructed scenarios based on comprehensive consideration of variation characteristics of Land use and climate changes. Then simulated the hydrological characteristics and discussed the hydrological response in different scenarios at basin scale. The results showed that: (1) After successful calibration verification, the correlation coefficient (R²), relative error (R_e) and Nash-Suttcliffe coefficient (E_ns) of SWAT model are 0.83, -8% and 0.68 respectively. It shows that the calibrated SWAT model can simulate the monthly flows well, and is thus applicable to the study of Taohe River Basin. (2) Compared with 1976-1995, water yield throughout this basin has increased by 1.30 mm due to climate change and decreased by 0.77 mm due to land use change. The effect of the land use change on hydrological characteristics is less than climate change. However, the land use change is anunneglectable factor in basin management. From the scenarios of extreme land use change, the water yield in forest, pasture and farmland are changed by 18.1%, -7.4% and -10.1% respectively compared with that of the 1985 land use scenarios. From the scenarios of climate change, the temperature changes are 2 ℃, 1 ℃, -1 ℃ and 2 ℃ respectively when the precipitation is unchanged, and the changes in basin-wide water yield are -4.23%, -2.56%, 3.08% and 6.70%, respectively. The precipitation changes are 20%, 10%, -10% and -20% respectively when the temperature is unchanged, and the changes in basin-wide water yield are 56.32%, 30.88%, -23.66% and -45.94%, respectively. (3) The interaction of land use and climate changes, the area of surface runoff increase mainly locates in Guanghe, Hezhen and Kangle county of the lower reaches of Taohe River, and in Luqu and Xiahe county of the upper reaches of Taohe River. The area of the surface runoff increase is about 39% in the total area.

Key words： land use change; climate change; SWAT model; scenario simulation; hydrological characteristics

Cite this article

Wang Ying , Zhang Qiang , Wang Jinsong , Zhang Lei . Appling SWAT Model to Explore the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Changes on the Hydrological Characteristics in Taohe River Basin[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2017 , 37(1) : 175 -185 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2015.00189

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