Prediction on Dust in Spring during 2015-2100 over East Asia under AlB Scenario
Received date: 2015-06-29
Revised date: 2015-10-13
Online published: 2017-03-20
A regional climate model RegCM4 coupled with an on-line dust module is used to predict the future trend of East Asian dust in spring from 2015 to 2100. Based on the simulation results, there generally exists obvious oscillation characteristics of the dust emission flux (DEF) and dust deposition flux (DDF). The model also captures the significant fluctuating and descending trend of the dust optical depth (DOD) over East Asian dust sources. At the same time, the DOD and DDF appear significant fluctuating and ascending trend over downstream areas of dust sources. Only the DEF over the Taklimakan Desert and its circumjacent areas presents significant fluctuating and descending trend over all East Asian dust sub-sources. The maximal falling velocity of DOD occurs over Saryesik-Atyrau Desert and Hulun Buir Desert with the values up to -2.8%/10a and -2.3/10a respectively. In addition, the rising velocity of DOD is 1.5%/10a over southern North China, Huanghuai Area, the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and eastern and southern Chinese offshore. The significant rise (1.9%/10a) of DDF may do harm to the marine environment of our country. Compared to the maximum surface wind speed for DOD, the mean surface wind speed especially maximum surface wind speed are the main factors of the DEF.
Key words： AlB scenario; regional climate model; dust; future prediction
Su Xingtao , Zhang Zhibiao , Ou Lei . Prediction on Dust in Spring during 2015-2100 over East Asia under AlB Scenario[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2017 , 37(2) : 315 -320 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2015.00226
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