灰色预测模型在径流长期预报中的应用

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于灰色系统的建模理论,利用河西地区有关河流的径流观测资料,建立了一个GM(1,1)残差序列周期修正径流预测模型,并用于春旱缺水期3~6月河流来水量的长期预报,经生产部门验证,准确率在80%以上。

Abstract: Based on the modeling theory of Grey System,a predicting model used for runoff long range forecast was presented.The Grey model has been applied to re obtain the theoretic discharge of Yingluoxia Hydrometric Station in Heihe River as well as the other principal rivers in Hexi area.Compared with the runoff documents during dry period from March to June of these rivers,the mean forecasting accuracy is over 80%.

Key words: Grey model, Runoff, Long range forecast, Residual error series, Correction of period

蓝永超, 杨志怀, 权建民, 刘延平. 灰色预测模型在径流长期预报中的应用[J]. 中国沙漠, 1997, 17(1): 49-52.

Lan Yongchao, Yang Zhihuai, Quan Jianmin, Liu Yanping. APPLICATION OF GREYMODEL ON LONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF RUNOFF[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 1997, 17(1): 49-52.

灰色预测模型在径流长期预报中的应用

APPLICATION OF GREYMODEL ON LONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF RUNOFF

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 0

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价