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中国沙漠  1997, Vol. 17 Issue (1): 49-52    
研究论文     
灰色预测模型在径流长期预报中的应用
蓝永超1, 杨志怀1, 权建民2, 刘延平2
1. 中国科学院兰州冰川冻土研究所, 兰州 730000;
2. 甘肃省水利厅, 兰州 730000
APPLICATION OF GREYMODEL ON LONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF RUNOFF
Lan Yongchao1, Yang Zhihuai1, Quan Jianmin2, Liu Yanping2
1. Institute of Glacier and Cryopedology Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000;
2. The Water Conservancy Department of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730000
 全文: PDF(162 KB)  
摘要: 基于灰色系统的建模理论,利用河西地区有关河流的径流观测资料,建立了一个GM(1,1)残差序列周期修正径流预测模型,并用于春旱缺水期3~6月河流来水量的长期预报,经生产部门验证,准确率在80%以上。
关键词: 灰色模型径流长期预报残差序列周期修正    
Abstract: Based on the modeling theory of Grey System,a predicting model used for runoff long range forecast was presented.The Grey model has been applied to re obtain the theoretic discharge of Yingluoxia Hydrometric Station in Heihe River as well as the other principal rivers in Hexi area.Compared with the runoff documents during dry period from March to June of these rivers,the mean forecasting accuracy is over 80%.
Key words: Grey model    Runoff    Long range forecast    Residual error series    Correction of period
收稿日期: 1996-01-25 出版日期: 1996-03-20
作者简介: 蓝永超,男,1957年生,助理研究员。主要从事干旱、寒冷地区径流预报模型的研究工作。
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引用本文:

蓝永超, 杨志怀, 权建民, 刘延平. 灰色预测模型在径流长期预报中的应用[J]. 中国沙漠, 1997, 17(1): 49-52.

Lan Yongchao, Yang Zhihuai, Quan Jianmin, Liu Yanping. APPLICATION OF GREYMODEL ON LONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF RUNOFF. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 1997, 17(1): 49-52.

链接本文:

http://www.desert.ac.cn/CN/        http://www.desert.ac.cn/CN/Y1997/V17/I1/49

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