呼图壁河流域过去313 a春季平均最高气温序列及其特征分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

根据采自天山北坡中部呼图壁河流域6个采点的树木年轮样本，研制出该流域的树木年轮年表。通过相关普查发现，树轮差值年表与春季（5—6月）平均最高气温存在显著的负相关，最高单相关系数为-0.505，且具有明确的树木生理学意义。用喀音萨依（t），喀音萨依（t+1）和希热克久热特（t+1）3个树轮差值年表序列可较好地重建呼图壁河流域313 a来该时段平均最高气温变化，交叉检验表明重建结果稳定可靠。呼图壁河流域313 a来春季平均最高气温重建序列具有如下特征：①经历了7个偏暖阶段和6个偏冷阶段；②存在7~18 a、30 a明显的准周期变化；③在1886年发生过一次明显的突变。

关键词: 呼图壁河流域, 树轮差值年表, 最高气温, 特征分析

Abstract:

The tree-ring chronologies were established according to samples from the Hutubi River Basin, northern slopes of Tianshan Mountains. Single correlation screen indicated that the correlations were significant between the tree-ring residual chronologies and the mean maximum temperature from May to June, and the maximum correlation coefficient was 0.505. At the same time, the result has distinct physiological significance. With 3 tree-ring residual chronologies in Kayinsayi(t), Kayinsayi(t+1) and Xirekejiurete(t+1), the mean maximum temperature in the recent 313 years was well reconstructed, and the reconstructed equation was stable proved by crossing-test. The main results are as follows：①The reconstructed temperature series had 7 warm periods above its mean and 6 cold periods bellow its mean; ②The reconstructed temperature series from May to June in the Hutubi River Basin during the last 313 years had significant period cycles of 7~18 years, 30 years; ③The abrupt change of temperature occurred in 1886.

Key words: Hutubi River Basin, tree-ring residual chronology, maximum temperature, characteristic analysis

中图分类号:

P467，P467

陈峰;袁玉江;魏文寿;喻树龙;丁雷;尚华明;. 呼图壁河流域过去313 a春季平均最高气温序列及其特征分析[J]. 中国沙漠, 2009, 29(1): 162-167.

CHEN Feng;YUAN Yu-jiang;WEI Wen-shou;YU Shu-long;DING Lei;SHANG Hua-ming;. Spring Mean Maximum Temperature Series and Its Variation Properties in Hutubi River Basin during the Last 313 Years[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2009, 29(1): 162-167.

参考文献

[1]袁玉江,李江风.天山东端树轮年表的响应函数[J].干旱区研究,1994,11(1):27-34.
[2]袁玉江,李江风,胡汝骥,等.用树木年轮重建天山中部近350 a来的降水量[J].冰川冻土,2001,23(1)：34-40.
[3]喻树龙,袁玉江,金海龙,等.用树木年轮重建天山北坡中西部7—8月379 a的降水量[J].冰川冻土,2005,27(3):404-410.
[4]袁玉江,李江风.新疆伊犁地区树轮年表特征初探[J].干旱区地理,1993,16(3)：49-50.
[5]王承义,胡扬斌.新疆伊犁地区近250年冷暖变化特征分析[J].干旱区地理,1996,19(3):37-44.
[6]李江风,袁玉江,由希尧,等.树木年轮水文学研究与应用[M].北京：科学出版社，2000:51-124.
[7]Holmes R L.Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurement[J].Tree-Ring Bulletin,1983,43:69-78.
[8]Cook E R. A time series analysis approach to tree-ring standardization[D].Ph.D.Dissertation.The University of Arizona,Tucson,1985.
[9]邵雪梅,吴祥定.华山树木年轮年表的建立[J].地理学报.1994,49(2):174-181.
[10]吴祥定.树木年轮与气候变化[M].北京:气象出版社,1990:54-56,171-172.
[11]袁玉江,李江风.天山西部树轮年表的响应函数[J].冰川冻土,1995,17(2):170-177.
[12]康兴成,张其花,Lisa J.Graumlich,等.利用树轮资料重建青海都兰地区过去1835年的气候变化[J].冰川冻土,2000,22(1):65-72.
[13]潘娅婷,袁玉江,喻树龙.博尔塔拉河流域过去461 a夏季气温的重建和分析[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(1):159-164.
[14]刘禹,马利民,蔡秋芳,等.依据陕西秦岭镇安树木年轮重建3—4月份气温序列[J].自然科学进展,2001,11(2):157-162.
[15]鲁瑞洁,夏虹.腾格里沙漠南缘油松树轮宽度变化及其对气候因子的响应[J].中国沙漠,2006,26(3):399-402.
[16]王亚军,勾晓华,刘普幸,等.甘肃榆中200年来春季气温的变化[J].中国沙漠,2006,26(2):283-285.
[17]苏志珠,卢琦,吴波,等.气候变化和人类活动对我国荒漠化的可能影响[J].中国沙漠,2006,26(3):329-335.
[18]李明启,靳鹤龄,张洪.小冰期气候的研究进展[J].中国沙漠,2005,25(5):731-737.
[19]王绍武,叶瑾琳,龚道溢,等.近百年中国年气温序列的建立[J].应用气象学报,1998,9(4):392-401.
[20]靳立亚,秦宁生,勾晓华,等.青海南部高原近450年来春季最高气温序列及其时变特征[J].第四纪研究,2005,25(2):193-201.
[21]刘晓宏,秦大河,邵雪梅,等.西藏林芝地区近350 a来降水变化及突变分析[J].冰川冻土,2003,25(4):375-379.
[22]林振山,邓自旺.子波气候诊断技术的研究[M].北京:气象出版社,1999:1-174.
[23]Briffaa K R, Osborna T J, Schweingruberb F H. Large-scale temperature inferences from tree rings: a review[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2004,40:11-26.
[24]汪青春,周陆生,秦宁生,等.利用乌兰树木年轮重建托托河冬季气温序列[J].高原气象,2003,22(5):518-522.