基于能值理论的农业复合系统评价与案例研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 结合1996—2007年资料,运用能值理论,从农业投入产出、生态环境-社会经济系统和农业发展性能3个方面,构建了农业复合系统能值评价指标体系,对塔里木河下游铁干里克绿洲农业复合系统进行了分析和系统敏感性评估。结果表明:①农业系统的能值投入和产出总体上都呈上升趋势,系统能值产出增长速度快于能值投入；②农业发展对自身环境资源的依赖程度有所减小,而对辅助能的依赖逐步增强,且自然环境资源承受的压力不断增大,可持续性差；③铁干里克绿洲农业机械化、现代化步伐逐步加快,农业生产效率得以有效提高,但农业经济发展水平还处于较低水平,属于消费型系统；④系统敏感性分析表明,与可更新环境资源能相比,不可更新工业辅助能的投入对整个农业复合系统的影响较大。

关键词: 农业复合系统, 能值理论, 敏感性, 铁干里克绿洲

Abstract: Based on emergy theory and relating data in 1996—2007, we constructed agricultural complex system assessment indices from three parts: agricultural input(output, agricultural environment(social economy system and agricultural development capability, then made a case study of agricultural complex system and its sensibility of the Tikanlik Oasis in low reaches of the Tarim River. Results indicate that: (1) In the whole, the total emergy input and yield all increased but the yield increase rate was quicker than input increase rate during the study period. (2) With agriculture development, its dependence on environmental resources was less than on nonrenewable fuels; pressure on agricultural environmental intensified and agricultural complex system had low sustainability. (3) Mechanization, modernization level and agriculture production efficiency in the oasis improved, and the peoples living standard and economy development also presented a new improvement, however agricultural development level was low and it was still a consumption system. Sensitivity analysis showed that nonrenewable fuels had more influence on agricultural complex system than renewable environmental resources.

Key words: agricultural complex system, emergy theory, sensibility, Tikanlik Oasis

中图分类号:

F323

苏芮, 陈亚宁, 李卫红, 周洪华, 马雁飞, 王国刚. 基于能值理论的农业复合系统评价与案例研究[J]. 中国沙漠, 2012, 32(1): 226-234.

SU Rui, CHEN Ya-ning, LI Wei-hong, ZHOU Hong-hua, MA Yan-fei, WANG Guo-gang. Assessment of Agricultural Complex System Based on Emergy and A Case Study[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2012, 32(1): 226-234.

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