1961—2004年新疆降水极值概率分布特征

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 根据1961—2004年新疆地区55个气象站逐日降水观测资料和PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) 区域气候影响模式(1961—2004年)逐日降水模拟资料,建立年最大降水AM(annual maximum)序列及日降水量小于0.05 mm 的年连续最长干旱天数AMCD(Annual Maximum Consecutive Dry Days)序列,分析了新疆地区降水极值序列的时空分布特征和概率分布模式。结果表明:①新疆地区降水事件的强度和概率最大的地区位于阿合奇、巴里坤、昭苏、乌鲁木齐等地,干旱事件强度和概率最大的地区位于且末、若羌、吐鲁番等地;②PRECIS区域气候影响模式模拟的新疆地区AM事件的多年平均值普遍高于观测值,且离差系数也普遍高于观测值;③PRECIS区域气候影响模式模拟结果与观测的降水极值空间分布有一定的差异,需要进行改进,但具有实际参考价值。对于实际观测的降水极值概率分布的拟合,证明了GEV分布函数能够较好地拟合降水极值的概率分布。

关键词: 降水极值, 广义极值分布, Gumbel分布, , 区域气候影响模式

Abstract: Based on daily precipitation data from 55 meteorological stations in Xinjiang, China during 1961—2004 and the daily precipitation data simulated by PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies), the series of precipitation extremes, which contain annual maximum precipitation and annual maximum consecutive dry days, were constructed, and the distribution features of precipitation extremes were analyzed on the base of the two data series. Results show that: 1) the intensity and probability of annual maximum precipitation are the highest in Aheqi, Barkul, Zhaosu and Urumqi, and the intensity and probability of annual maximum consecutive dry days are the highest in Qiemo, Ruoqiang and Turpan; 2) compared with observational data, inter-annual average maximum precipitations simulated by PRECIS are higher, and the discrete coefficients of annual maximum precipitation simulated by PRECIS are higher too; 3) in spite of certain differences of the spatial distributions between observed and simulated precipitation extremes, the PRECIS simulation data have reference value. Fitting of precipitation extremes observation data shows that general extreme value distribution can fit the probability distribution of precipitation extremes quite well.

Key words: precipitation extremes, generalized extreme value distribution, Gumbel distribution, PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) model

中图分类号:

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张延伟, 姜逢清, 魏文寿, 王雯雯, 刘明哲, 韩茜, 洪雯, 陆恒. 1961—2004年新疆降水极值概率分布特征[J]. 中国沙漠, 2012, 32(2): 503-508.

ZHANG Yan-wei, JIANG Feng-qing, WEI Wen-shou, WANG Wen-wen, LIU Ming-zhe, HAN Qian, HONG Wen, LU Heng. Probability Distribution of Precipitation Extremes over Xinjiang during 1961—2004[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2012, 32(2): 503-508.

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