关键词: 参考作物蒸散量, 灰色系统理论, MGM（1, n）模型

Abstract: The general grey forecasting model GM(1,1) cannot take multi-variables into account when several variables relate with each other and few observation data are available. In this paper, a self-adapting MGM(1, n) model, which is a grey multi-variable forecasting model, is introduced to solve this problem. In area with few observation data, the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) were calculated by Penman-Monteith method based on the meteorology data in Zhenglan banner of Inner Mongolia. The variation regulation of crop evapotranspiration (ET0) was simulated and predicted by applying the grey MGM(1,n) established with grey system theory, whose results were compared with the those simulated by the GM(1,1) model and BP artificial neural network model. The results show that the MGM(1, n) model is feasible and effective for application.

Key words: reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0), grey system theory, MGM (1, n) model