关键词: 协调发展度, 主成分分析, GM(1, 1), 协同论, 西安市

Abstract: An evaluation index system of land use and ecological environment was constructed on the basis of Xi'an statistical yearbook data from 1998 to 2013 in this study. The relative importance was confirmed with principal component analysis and the relationship between land use and ecological environment was evaluated with coordinated development model. The future trend was predicted using GM (1,1) model. The results showed that:(1) There was a complicated time-varying with nonlinear and dynamic coupling relationship. From 1997 to 2005, at the early stage of development, the land use type was barely coordinated and the development of land use lagged behind ecological environment with an unstable relationship and low coordination-level; From 2006 to 2011, the middle stage of development, the land use type was changed to elementary and intermediate level with the relationship tended to stable; The land use type was basically stable in well coordinated relationship since 2012. The relationship was developed orderly and steadily and showed a V-shaped trajectory. (2) Both of the evaluation indexes from 1997 to 2012 showed rising a trend and the main factor influencing the coordinated development degree was changed from ecological environment to land use gradually. Therefore, balancing the development speed of land use and ecological environment and regulating the land use type become more important for coordinated development relationship between land use and ecological environment.

Key words: coordination development degree, principal component analysis, GM(1,1), synergetic, Xi'an