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中国沙漠 ›› 2022, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (6): 25-32.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2022.00038

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基于FloodArea模型的暴雨洪涝灾害风险预评估技术及效果检验

王娜1,2(), 雷田旺3(), 肖舜4, 雷杨娜1,2, 毛明策1,2   

  1. 1.陕西省气象局 秦岭和黄土高原生态环境气象重点实验室,陕西 西安 710014
    2.陕西省气候中心,陕西 西安 710015
    3.西安交通工程学院,陕西 西安 710065
    4.陕西师范大学 地理科学与旅游学院,陕西 西安 710119
  • 收稿日期:2022-02-12 修回日期:2022-04-14 出版日期:2022-11-20 发布日期:2023-01-09
  • 通讯作者: 雷田旺
  • 作者简介:雷田旺(E-mail: 706901254@ qq.com
    王娜(1984—),女,甘肃陇南人,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事气象灾害风险评估与气候变化研究。E-mail: wangna_na@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    陕西省科技厅自然科学基础研究计划项目(2021JQ-954);国家自然科学基金项目(41771220);陕西省科技厅社发领域重点研发计划项目(2021SF-435)

Pre-assessment and verification of rainstorm and flood disasters risk based on FloodArea model

Na Wang1,2(), Tianwang Lei3(), Shun Xiao4, Yangna Lei1,2, Mingce Mao1,2   

  1. 1.Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Eco-Environment and Meteorology for the Qinling Mountains and Loess Plateau,Shaanxi Meteorological Bureau,Xi'an 710014,China
    2.Shaanxi Climate Center,Xi'an 710015,China
    3.Xi'an Traffic Engineering Institute,Xi'an 710065,China
    4.School of Geography and Tourism,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi'an 710119,China
  • Received:2022-02-12 Revised:2022-04-14 Online:2022-11-20 Published:2023-01-09
  • Contact: Tianwang Lei

摘要:

利用陕西气象站点逐小时降水实况、精细化格点预报、数字高程、土地利用、灾情等资料,应用水动力模型FloodArea对暴雨洪涝进行淹没模拟,在淹没水深和范围的基础上叠置承灾体属性,引入承灾体的灾损曲线,建立暴雨洪涝灾害风险预评估模型,并从数量占比和灾情占比两个角度,以县为单元进行验证,利用格点降水量预报对陕西6次大范围暴雨过程灾害风险进行预评估以及效果检验。结果表明:暴雨洪涝气象风险预估结果与实际受灾地区分布基本吻合,正确预报率73.2%,模拟结果可信度高,对于降水区域集中暴雨的风险预评估性能较分散性暴雨较高,漏报率相对低,但是空报率较高;建立的暴雨洪涝灾害风险预评估及效果检验流程,提高了气象服务的针对性,可以用于洪涝风险预评估的实际业务中,对暴雨洪涝风险管理提供技术支撑。

关键词: 暴雨洪涝, FloodArea, 风险预评估, 效果检验

Abstract:

By using hourly rainfall data from the meteorological stations, grid forecast precipitation data, the digital elevation model, the land use data,and the disasters data, a pre-assessment method for rainstorm and flood impact is established over Shaanxi Province. Based on the inundation depth and scope, a refined rainstorm flood disaster risk pre-assessment model was established with overlaying the attributes of the disaster-bearing body and introducing the disaster loss curve of the disaster-bearing body, then verified from the perspectives of the proportion of the quantity and the proportion of the disaster. The results show that the prediction disaster areas of rainstorm and flood meteorological risk are basically consistent with the actual distribution of disaster areas, and the correct prediction rate is 73.2%, and the simulation results are highly reliable. The risk pre-assessment performance of concentrated rainstorm in precipitation area is higher than that of decentralized rainstorm, and the missing rate is relatively low, but the empty rate is high.According to the results of risk pre-assessment and effect inspection, it is found that the regional adaptability of the model itself and the accuracy of rainstrom forecast affect the accuracy of pre-assessment. The procedure of rainstorm and flood disaster risk pre-assessment and effect inspection can improve the pertinence of meteorological services, which can be used in the actual business of flood risk pre-assessment and provide technical support for storm and flood risk management.

Key words: rainstorm and flood, FloodArea model, risk pre-assessment, verification

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