气候变化下的孑遗植物裸果木(Gymnocarpos przewalskii)适宜生境分布

赵泽斌; 赵泽芳; 卫海燕; 郭彦龙; 栾文飞

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2019.00075

中国沙漠 >

2020 , Vol. 40 >Issue 2: 125 - 133

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2019.00075

气候变化下的孑遗植物裸果木(Gymnocarpos przewalskii)适宜生境分布

赵泽斌 ,
赵泽芳 ,
卫海燕 ,
郭彦龙 ,
栾文飞

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1. 北京师范大学中药资源保护与利用北京市重点实验室/地理科学学部, 北京 100875;
2. 陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院, 陕西西安 710119;
3. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所, 北京 100085;
4. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院, 甘肃兰州 730000

赵泽芳(1992-),女,陕西商洛人,博士研究生,主要从事地图学与生态建模研究。E-mail:zzfnn@mail.bnu.edu.cn

收稿日期: 2019-06-11

修回日期: 2019-08-01

网络出版日期: 2020-04-26

基金资助

中国博士后科学基金项目（2019M650857）

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Impact of climate change on the suitable habitatdistribution of Gymnocarpos przewalskii, a relict plant

Zhao Zebin ,
Zhao Zefang ,
Wei Haiyan ,
Guo Yanlong ,
Luan Wenfei

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1. Beijing Key Laboratory of Traditional Chinese Medicine Protection and Utilization/Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
2. School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xian 710119, China;
3. Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China;
4. Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China

Received date: 2019-06-11

Revised date: 2019-08-01

Online published: 2020-04-26

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摘要

裸果木(Gymnocarpos przewalskii)为濒危孑遗植物,对荒漠生态系统具有重要意义。以生态位理论为基础,利用BIOMOD2建模平台中的5个模型算法(MaxEnt、RF、GBM、GAM、CTA)结合3大类19个环境气候因子数据构建组合物种分布模型模拟该物种在基准气候条件下的分布,并进一步预测在不同气候变化情景下分布范围的变化,进而为该物种原生产地保护及人工种植提供依据。结果表明:(1)Bio3(等温性)、Bio11(最冷季平均温度)、Bio12(年降水量)、Bio19(最冷季降水量)、slope(坡度)、T_caso4(表土硫酸钙含量)、T_gravel(表土砾石含量)、Tusda(表层土壤USDA分类)为影响该物种适宜生境分布的主要环境因子;(2)基准气候条件下,中国西北地区裸果木适宜生境面积约为0.59×10⁶ km²,主要分布于河西走廊及其周边区域,在塔里木盆地边缘也有较为集中的适宜生境分布。(3)在气候变暖的情景下该物种适宜生境面积略有增加,且不同气候变化情景差异较小,适宜生境整体北移。

关键词： 裸果木(Gymnocarpos przewalskii); 气候变化; 集合物种分布模型; 生境分布

本文引用格式

赵泽斌 , 赵泽芳 , 卫海燕 , 郭彦龙 , 栾文飞 . 气候变化下的孑遗植物裸果木(Gymnocarpos przewalskii)适宜生境分布[J]. 中国沙漠, 2020 , 40(2) : 125 -133 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2019.00075

Abstract

Gymnocarpos przewalskii is an endangered relict plant, which plays an important role in maintaining and improving the fragile desert ecological environment. Based on niche theory, combined with 19 environmental and climate variables belong to 3 categories we developed a comprehensive habitat suitability model by integrating 5 model algorithms to a unified modeling process to assess the distribution of suitable G. przewalskii habitats across China in the 2000s and the 2070s under RCP 6.0, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change emission scenarios, which will provide theoretical and technical support for the introduction and domestication for G. przewalskii. Our results show that Bio3 (Isothermality), Bio11 (Mean temperature of coldest quarter), Bio12 (Annual precipitation), Bio19 (Precipitation of coldest quarter), Slope, T_caso4 (Topsoil gypsum), T_gravel (Topsoil gravel content), Tusda (Topsoil USDA Texture Classification) were dominant environmental variables for the suitable habitat distribution of this species. Under the basic climatic conditions, the suitable habitats for G. przewalskii in China were approximately 0.59×10⁶ km², which mainly distributes in the Hexi Corridor and its surrounding areas, and the margin of the Tarim Basin. Under the climate warming scenario, the suitable habitat area will increased slightly, and the difference between various climate change scenarios was small, with the suitable habitat will shift northward.

Key words： Gymnocarpos przewalskii; climate change; ensemble species distribution model; habitat distribution

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