气候变化下的孑遗植物裸果木(Gymnocarpos przewalskii)适宜生境分布

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2019.00075

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 裸果木(Gymnocarpos przewalskii)为濒危孑遗植物,对荒漠生态系统具有重要意义。以生态位理论为基础,利用BIOMOD2建模平台中的5个模型算法(MaxEnt、RF、GBM、GAM、CTA)结合3大类19个环境气候因子数据构建组合物种分布模型模拟该物种在基准气候条件下的分布,并进一步预测在不同气候变化情景下分布范围的变化,进而为该物种原生产地保护及人工种植提供依据。结果表明:(1)Bio3(等温性)、Bio11(最冷季平均温度)、Bio12(年降水量)、Bio19(最冷季降水量)、slope(坡度)、T_caso4(表土硫酸钙含量)、T_gravel(表土砾石含量)、Tusda(表层土壤USDA分类)为影响该物种适宜生境分布的主要环境因子;(2)基准气候条件下,中国西北地区裸果木适宜生境面积约为0.59×10⁶ km²,主要分布于河西走廊及其周边区域,在塔里木盆地边缘也有较为集中的适宜生境分布。(3)在气候变暖的情景下该物种适宜生境面积略有增加,且不同气候变化情景差异较小,适宜生境整体北移。

关键词: 裸果木(Gymnocarpos przewalskii), 气候变化, 集合物种分布模型, 生境分布

Abstract: Gymnocarpos przewalskii is an endangered relict plant, which plays an important role in maintaining and improving the fragile desert ecological environment. Based on niche theory, combined with 19 environmental and climate variables belong to 3 categories we developed a comprehensive habitat suitability model by integrating 5 model algorithms to a unified modeling process to assess the distribution of suitable G. przewalskii habitats across China in the 2000s and the 2070s under RCP 6.0, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change emission scenarios, which will provide theoretical and technical support for the introduction and domestication for G. przewalskii. Our results show that Bio3 (Isothermality), Bio11 (Mean temperature of coldest quarter), Bio12 (Annual precipitation), Bio19 (Precipitation of coldest quarter), Slope, T_caso4 (Topsoil gypsum), T_gravel (Topsoil gravel content), Tusda (Topsoil USDA Texture Classification) were dominant environmental variables for the suitable habitat distribution of this species. Under the basic climatic conditions, the suitable habitats for G. przewalskii in China were approximately 0.59×10⁶ km², which mainly distributes in the Hexi Corridor and its surrounding areas, and the margin of the Tarim Basin. Under the climate warming scenario, the suitable habitat area will increased slightly, and the difference between various climate change scenarios was small, with the suitable habitat will shift northward.

Key words: Gymnocarpos przewalskii, climate change, ensemble species distribution model, habitat distribution

中图分类号:

Q948

赵泽芳, 卫海燕, 郭彦龙, 栾文飞, 赵泽斌. 气候变化下的孑遗植物裸果木(Gymnocarpos przewalskii)适宜生境分布[J]. 中国沙漠, 2020, 40(2): 125-133.

Zhao Zefang, Wei Haiyan, Guo Yanlong, Luan Wenfei, Zhao Zebin. Impact of climate change on the suitable habitatdistribution of Gymnocarpos przewalskii, a relict plant[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2020, 40(2): 125-133.

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