Please wait a minute...
img

官方微信

高级检索
中国沙漠  2019, Vol. 39 Issue (6): 209-215    DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2019.00088
    
气候变暖背景下中国干旱变化的区域特征
马鹏里, 韩兰英, 张旭东, 刘卫平
兰州区域气候中心, 甘肃 兰州 730020
Regional Characteristics of Drought in China under the Background of Climate Warming
Ma Pengli, Han Lanying, Zhang Xudong, Liu Weiping
Lanzhou Regional Climate Center, Lanzhou 730020, China
 全文: PDF(2015 KB)  
摘要: 在全球气温日趋升高和极端降水增加的气候背景下,近年来中国干旱变化特征异常突出,新形势下需进一步深入认识干旱发生特征及影响机制。利用1960-2014年中国527个气象站逐日气温和降水量数据,选用改进的综合气象干旱指数(MCI)作为干旱监测指标,详细分析了中国各区域干旱强度、次数和持续时间变化特征及其差异性。结果表明:1960年以来,中国各区域干旱程度加重,范围增大,次数增多,持续时间增长。干旱特征发生了明显的区域变化,各个区域干旱变化差异显著。西南、华中、华北和华南区域干旱程度明显加重,主要是重度以上干旱次数较多。华北和西南干旱年数最多,为45年,其他地方为35~36年,华北重度以上干旱年份最多,为14年,其次是东北和华南的7年。干旱发生时间和区域也有随机性,中国各区域四季都有可能发生干旱,干旱不仅发生在北方干旱和半干旱区域,在南方湿润和半湿润区域同样发生。各区域以夏旱为主,东北以春旱和夏旱居多,华南以秋旱为主。干旱持续时间不等,有时高达9个月。有些区域年内干旱呈单峰型,有些区域为双峰型。气候变暖背景下,中国各个区域干旱呈加重趋势。
关键词: 中国气候变化致灾因子MCI干旱特征区域差异性    
Abstract: Under the climate background of global warming, the characteristics of drought change are very prominent in recent years in China, and the understanding of the mechanism of drought disaster needs to be further deepened under the new situation. The improved comprehensive meteorological drought index (MCI) was selected as the monitoring index for drought based on the daily temperature and precipitation data of 527 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2014 in China, and the variation characteristics and differences of drought intensity, frequency and duration were analyzed systematically in seven regions of China. The results show that the range, severity, frequency and duration of drought increase in China under the background of climate warming. The characteristics of drought had obvious regional changes, and there were significant differences among seven different regions. The degree of drought significantly increased in southwest, central, north and south China. The total number of droughts was 45 years in north and southwest China, while it was 35-36 years in other places, and the number of severe or above droughts was mainly more. The most severe drought years were 14 years in north China, followed by 7 years in northeast and south China. The time and region of drought are also random. Drought may occur in all seasons,but the drought happened mainly in summer in China, mostly happened in spring and summer in northeast, and mainly happened in autumn in south. The duration of drought sometimes is as long as nine months. In some regions, the drought pattern is one peak, while it is two peaks in some areas. The drought in north is heavier and lasts longer than south. Moreover, drought occurs not only in the arid and semi-arid regions of the north, but also in the humid and semi-humid regions of the south. Under the background of climate warming, the drought is increasing in all regions of China, not only in three regions of the northern, but also in four regions of the southern.
Key words: China    climate change    disaster factors    MCI    drought characteristics    regional differences
收稿日期: 2019-10-02 出版日期: 2019-11-14
ZTFLH:  X703.5  
基金资助: 国家自然科学基金项目(41605090);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF 201913);甘肃省自然基金青-科技基金计划项目(1208RJYA027)和干旱气象科学研究基金项目(IAM201509)
作者简介: 马鹏里(1966-),男,甘肃平凉人,正研级高工,主要从事干旱气候变化影响与灾害评估研究。E-mail:mapl0531@163.com
服务  
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
RSS
作者相关文章  
马鹏里
韩兰英
张旭东
刘卫平

引用本文:

马鹏里, 韩兰英, 张旭东, 刘卫平. 气候变暖背景下中国干旱变化的区域特征[J]. 中国沙漠, 2019, 39(6): 209-215.

Ma Pengli, Han Lanying, Zhang Xudong, Liu Weiping. Regional Characteristics of Drought in China under the Background of Climate Warming. Journal of Desert Research, 2019, 39(6): 209-215.

链接本文:

http://www.desert.ac.cn/CN/10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2019.00088        http://www.desert.ac.cn/CN/Y2019/V39/I6/209

[1] Cook B I,Smerdon J E,Seager R,et al.Global warming and 21st century drying[J].Climate Dynamic,2014,43:2607-2627.
[2] Coumou D,Rahmstor F S.A decade of weather extremes[J].Nature Climate Change,2012,2:491-496.
[3] Dai A G.Drought under global warming:a review[J].Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews:Climatic Change,2010,2(1):45-65.
[4] Dai A G.Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models[J].Nature Climate Change,2013,3:52-58.
[5] Han L Y,Zhang Q,Ma P L,et al.The spatial distribution characteristics of a comprehensive drought risk index in southwestern China and underlying causes[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2016,124:517-528.
[6] 孙荣强.干旱定义及其指标评述[J].灾害学,1994,9(1):17-21.
[7] 马柱国.华北干旱化趋势及转折性变化与太平洋年代际振荡的关系[J].科学通报,2007,52(10):1199-1206.
[8] 林而达,周广胜,任立良.北方干旱化对农业、水资源和自然生态系统影响的研究[M].北京:气象出版社,2004.
[9] 宋连春,邓振镛,董安祥.全球变化热门话题丛书干旱[M].北京:气象出版社,2003.
[10] IPCC.Climate Change 2014:Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability[M].New York,USA:Cambridge University Press,2014.
[11] 韩兰英,张强,姚玉璧,等.近60年中国西南地区干旱灾害规律与成因[J].地理学报,2014,69(5):632-639.
[12] 黄荣辉,杜振彩.全球变暖背景下中国旱涝气候灾害的演变特征及趋势[J].自然杂志,2010,32(4):187-195.
[13] 黄晚华,隋月,杨晓光,等.气候变化背景下中国南方地区季节性干旱特征与适应.Ⅲ.基于降水量距平百分率的南方地区季节性干旱时空特征[J].应用生态学报,2013,24(2):397-406.
[14] Hayes M J,Svoboda M D,Wilhite D A,et al.Monitoring the 1996 drought using the standardized precipitation index[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1999,80:429-438.
[15] 王劲松,李耀辉,王润元,等.中国气象干旱研究进展评述[J].干旱气象,2012,30(4):497-508.
[16] Zhang Q,Han L Y,Jia J Y,et al.Management of drought risk under global warming[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2016,125:187-196.
[17] 张强,姚玉璧,李耀辉,等.中国西北地区干旱气象灾害监测预警与减灾技术研究进展及其展望[J].地球科学进展,2015,30(2):196-213.
[18] 张强,韩兰英,郝晓翠,等.气候变化对中国农业干旱灾损率的影响及其南北区域差异性[J].气象学报,2015,73(6):1092-1103.
[19] 张存杰,王宝灵,刘德祥,等.西北地区旱涝指标的研究[J].高原气象,1998,17(4):381-389.
[20] 袁文平,周广胜.干旱指标的理论分析与研究展望[J].地球科学进展,2004,19(6):982-991.
[21] 韩兰英,张强,贾建英,等.气候变暖背景下中国干旱强度、频次和持续时间及其南北差异性[J].中国沙漠,2019,39(5):1-10.
[22] 徐玉霞,许小明,杨宏伟,等.基于GIS的陕西省干旱灾害风险评估及区划[J].中国沙漠,2018,38(1):192-199.
[23] Palmer W C.Meteorological Drought[M].Washington,USA:US Department of Commerce,Weather Bureau,1965:45-58.
[24] Heim R R.A review of twentieth century drought indices used in the United States[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2002,83(8):1149-1165.
[25] Morid S,Smakhtin V,Moghaddasi M.Comparison of seven meteorological indices for drought monitoring in Iran[J].International Journal of Climatology,2007,27:971-985.
[26] Tsakiris G,Pangalou D,Vangelis H.Regional drought assessment based on the reconnaissance drought index (RDI)[J].Water Resources Management,2007,21(5):821-833.
[27] Sun L,Mitchell S W,Davidson A.Multiple drought indices for agricultural drought risk assessment on the Canadian prairies[J].Journal of Climatology,2012,32:1728-1739.
[28] Qin Y,Yang D W,Lei H M,et al.Comparative analysis of drought based on precipitation and soil moisture indices in Haihe basin of North China during the period of 1960-2010[J].Journal of Hydrology,2015,526:55-67.
[29] 方红远,甘升伟,余莹莹.中国区域干旱特征及干旱灾害应对措施分析[J].水利水电科技进展,2005,25(5):16-19.
[30] 鞠笑生,杨贤为,陈丽娟,等.中国单站旱涝指标确定和区域旱涝级别划分的研究[J].应用气象学报,1997,8(1):26-33.
[31] 王劲松,郭江勇,倾继祖.一种K干旱指数在西北地区春旱分析中的应用[J].自然资源学报,2007,22(5):709-717.
[32] 蔡晓军,茅海祥,王文.多尺度干旱指数在江淮流域的适应性研究[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(4):978-989.
[33] 王林,陈文.标准化降水蒸散指数在中国干旱监测的适用性分析[J].高原气象,2014,33(2):423-431.
[34] 谢五三,王胜,唐为安,等.干旱指数在淮河流域的适用性对比[J].应用气象学报,2014,25(2):176-184.
[35] 熊光洁,王式功,李崇银,等.三种干旱指数对西南地区适用性分析[J].高原气象,2014,33(3):686-697.
[36] 张存杰,王胜,宋艳玲.中国北方地区冬小麦干旱灾害风险评估[J].干旱气象,2014,32(6):883-893.
[37] 王素萍,王劲松,张强,等.几种干旱指标对西南和华南区域月尺度干旱监测的适用性评价[J].高原气象,2015,34(6):1616-1624.
[38] 刘巍巍,安顺清,刘庚山,等.帕尔默旱度模式的进一步修正[J].应用气象学报,2004,15(1):1-10.
[39] 张强,邹旭凯,肖风劲,等.GB/T20481-2006气象干旱等级[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2006:12-17.
[40] 张相文.新撰地文学[M].中国国家地理.1908.
[41] 韩兰英.气候变暖背景下中国农业干旱灾害致灾因子、风险性特征及其影响机制研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2016.
[42] Qian W H,Shan X L,Zhu Y F.Ranking regional drought events in China for 1970-2009[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2011,2(28):310-321.
[1] 韩超, 肖生春, 丁爱军, 滕泽宇. 腾格里沙漠南缘青海云杉(Picea crassifolia)和油松(Pinus tabulaeformis)年轮记录的气候变化[J]. 中国沙漠, 2020, 40(2): 50-58.
[2] 李想, 苏志珠, 马义娟, 张彩霞, 柳苗苗. 毛乌素沙地东南缘全新世气候不稳定性[J]. 中国沙漠, 2020, 40(2): 109-117.
[3] 赵泽芳, 卫海燕, 郭彦龙, 栾文飞, 赵泽斌. 气候变化下的孑遗植物裸果木(Gymnocarpos przewalskii)适宜生境分布[J]. 中国沙漠, 2020, 40(2): 125-133.
[4] 常茜, 鹿化煜, 吕娜娜, 崔梦淳, 李海宇. 1992-2015年中国沙漠面积变化的遥感监测与气候影响分析[J]. 中国沙漠, 2020, 40(1): 57-63.
[5] 程清平, 钟方雷, 左小安, 杨春林. 美丽中国与联合国可持续发展目标(SDGs)结合的黑河流域水资源承载力评价[J]. 中国沙漠, 2020, 40(1): 204-214.
[6] 马启民, 贾晓鹏, 王海兵, 李永山, 李劭宁. 气候和人为因素对植被变化影响的评价方法综述[J]. 中国沙漠, 2019, 39(6): 48-55.
[7] 刘荔昀, 鲁瑞洁, 刘小槺. 风成沉积物色度记录的毛乌素沙漠全新世以来气候变化[J]. 中国沙漠, 2019, 39(6): 83-89.
[8] 雷晨, 庞奖励, 黄春长, 查小春, 周亚利, 温瑞艳, 炊郁达. 渭河上游地区樊家城黄土-古土壤剖面Rb、Sr、Ba存留特征及意义[J]. 中国沙漠, 2019, 39(6): 90-98.
[9] 贾瑞, 刘玉芝, 吴楚樵, 祝清哲, 汪兵. 2007-2017年中国沙尘气溶胶的三维分布特征及输送过程[J]. 中国沙漠, 2019, 39(6): 108-117.
[10] 韩兰英, 张强, 贾建英, 王有恒, 黄涛. 气候变暖背景下中国干旱强度、频次和持续时间及其南北差异性[J]. 中国沙漠, 2019, 39(5): 1-10.
[11] 王莺, 赵文, 张强. 中国北方地区农业干旱脆弱性评价[J]. 中国沙漠, 2019, 39(4): 149-158.
[12] 薛文萍, 靳鹤龄, 刘冰, 孙良英, 刘振宇. 中国季风边缘区全新世沙地演化及其驱动机制研究进展[J]. 中国沙漠, 2019, 39(3): 163-171.
[13] 韩瑞, 苏志珠, 李想, 柳苗苗, 马义娟. 粒度和磁化率记录的毛乌素沙地东缘全新世气候变化[J]. 中国沙漠, 2019, 39(2): 105-114.
[14] 白壮壮, 崔建新. 近2 000 a毛乌素沙地沙漠化及成因[J]. 中国沙漠, 2019, 39(2): 177-185.
[15] 常红, 刘彤, 王大伟, 纪孝儒. 气候变化下中国西北干旱区梭梭(Haloxylon ammodendron)潜在分布[J]. 中国沙漠, 2019, 39(1): 110-118.