气候变暖背景下中国干旱强度、频次和持续时间及其南北差异性

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2018.00112

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在全球气温日趋升高和极端降水增加的气候背景下，近年来中国干旱变化特征异常突出，新形势下需进一步深入认识干旱灾害影响机制。利用1960—2014年中国527个气象站逐日气温和降水量数据，选用改进的综合气象干旱指数（MCI）作为监测指标，详细分析了中国干旱强度、频次和持续时间变化特征及其南北差异性。结果表明：气候变暖背景下，中国干旱范围扩大、程度加剧、频次增加；干旱发生的范围发生了明显的转移，北方干旱加剧的同时，南方干旱明显加重，尤其是大旱范围明显增加。中国干旱范围主要在黄河流域以南和长江以北地区。干旱频次北方高于南方，东部高于西部，长江流域以北干旱频次较高。中国干旱持续时间较长，而且四季都有可能发生干旱。干旱不仅发生在干旱区和半干旱区，湿润和半湿润区域也常有干旱发生。不同年代、不同区域干旱发生的程度、持续时间和频次有一定的差异。中国20世纪90年代中后期至21世纪初期干旱范围最广、持续时间最长，造成的损失最严重。中国干旱强度、频次和持续时间南北差异性显著。气候变暖后，中国干旱强度加重、范围扩大、频次增加和持续时间增加明显。

关键词: 干旱, 中国, 气候变化, MCI, 干旱指数

Abstract: This paper examines daily air temperature and precipitation data from 1960 to 2014 from 527 meteorological stations in China. The improved Meteorological Comprehensive Drought Index (MCI) is taken as indication of drought monitoring to analyze the spatial-temporal characteristics of drought severity, frequency, duration, and regional differences in China. The results show that drought scope has expanded in China, and the severity and frequency has increased in the context of climate warming. The scope of the drought is also changing, with drought intensifying in the north China and increasing substantially in the south China, especially in areas of severe drought. The drought was the most widespread and sustained in the late 1990s and 2001-2010 in China, mainly afflicting to the south of the Yellow River and north of the Yangtze River. In general, the drought level, duration, and frequency were higher in the north China than the south China and higher in the east China than the west China. Drought is likely to occur year-round in China, but the degree of occurrence, range, duration, and frequency differs across years and regions. The north-south differences of drought frequency and duration are significant.

Key words: drought, China, climate change, MCI, drought index

中图分类号:

P426.6

韩兰英, 张强, 贾建英, 王有恒, 黄涛. 气候变暖背景下中国干旱强度、频次和持续时间及其南北差异性[J]. 中国沙漠, 2019, 39(5): 1-10.

Han Lanying, Zhang Qiang, Jia Jianying, Wang Youheng, Huang Tao. Drought Severity, Frequency, Duration and Regional Differences in China[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2019, 39(5): 1-10.

参考文献

[1] 李克让,郭其蕴,张家诚.中国干旱灾害研究及减灾对策[M].郑州:河南科学技术出版社,1999:9-32.
[2] 杨志勇,刘琳,曹永强,等.农业干旱灾害风险评价及预测预警研究进展[J].水利经济,2011,29(2):12-17.
[3] 孙荣强.干旱定义及其指标评述[J].灾害学,1994,9(1):17-21.
[4] Hayes M J,Svoboda M D,Wilhite D A,et al.Monitoring the 1996 drought using the standardized precipitation index[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1999,80:429-438.
[5] 张书余.干旱气象学[M].北京:气象出版社,2008:19-26.
[6] 王劲松,李耀辉,王润元,等.我国气象干旱研究进展评述[J].干旱气象,2012,30(4):497-508.
[7] 张强,张良,崔显成,等.干旱监测与评价技术的发展及其科学挑战[J].地球科学进展,2011,6(7):763-778.
[8] 鞠笑生,杨贤为,陈丽娟,等.我国单站旱涝指标确定和区域旱涝级别划分的研究[J].应用气象学报,1997,8(1):26-33.
[9] 黄晚华,隋月,杨晓光,等.气候变化背景下中国南方地区季节性干旱特征与适应Ⅲ.基于降水量距平百分率的南方地区季节性干旱时空特征[J].应用生态学报,2013,24(2):397-406.
[10] Palmer W C.Meteorological Drought[R].US.Weather Bureau,1965:45-58.
[11] 刘巍巍,安顺清,刘庚山,等.帕尔默旱度模式的进一步修正[J].应用气象学报,2004,15(1):1-10.
[12] 卫捷,马柱国.Palmer干旱指数、地表湿润指数与降水距平的比较[J].地理学报,2003,58(S1):117-124.
[13] 袁文平,周广胜.干旱指标的理论分析与研究展望[J].地球科学进展,2004,19(6):982-991.
[14] 杨世刚,杨德堡,赵桂香,等.三种干旱指数在山西省干旱分析中的比较[J].高原气象,2011,5(30):1406-1414.
[15] 王澄海,王芝兰,郭毅鹏.GEV干旱指数及其在气象干旱预测和监测中的应用和检验[J].地球科学进展,2012,27(9):957-968.
[16] 王劲松,郭江勇,倾继祖.一种K干旱指数在西北地区春旱分析中的应用[J].自然资源学报,2007,22(5):709-717.
[17] 蔡晓军,茅海祥,王文.多尺度干旱指数在江淮流域的适应性研究[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(4):978-989.
[18] 谢五三,王胜,唐为安,等.干旱指数在淮河流域的适用性对比[J].应用气象学报,2014,25(2):176-184.
[19] 熊光洁,王式功,李崇银,等.三种干旱指数对西南地区适用性分析[J].高原气象,2014,33(3):686-697.
[20] 王林,陈文.标准化降水蒸散指数在中国干旱监测的适用性分析[J].高原气象,2014,33(2):423-431.
[21] 王素萍,王劲松,张强,等.几种干旱指标对西南和华南区域月尺度干旱监测的适用性评价[J].高原气象,2015,34(6):1616-1624.
[22] 张强,韩兰英,韩涛,气候变化对我国农业干旱灾损率的影响及其南北区域差异性[J].气象学报,2016,73(6):1092-1103.
[23] 张存杰,王胜,宋艳玲.我国北方地区冬小麦干旱灾害风险评估[J].干旱气象,2014,32(6):883-893.
[24] 张强,邹旭凯,肖风劲,等.GB/T20481-2006气象干旱等级[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2006:12-17.
[25] 张相文.新撰地文学[M].上海:文明书局,1908.
[26] 李玉中,程延年,安顺清.北方地区干旱规律及抗旱综合技术[M].北京:中国农业科学技术出版社,2003,18:25-32.
[27] Mckee T B,Doesken N J,Kleist J.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C]//Proc.8th Conference on Applied Climatology,1993.
[28] 马柱国.华北干旱化趋势及转折性变化与太平洋年代际振荡的关系[J].科学通报,2007,52(10):1199-1206.
[29] 黄荣辉,杜振彩.全球变暖背景下中国旱涝气候灾害的演变特征及趋势[J].自然杂志,2010,32(4):187-195.
[30] Dai A G.Drought under global warming:a review[J].Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews:Climatic Change,2010,2(1):45-65.
[31] IPCC.Climate Change 2014:Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability[M].New York,USA:Cambridge University Press,2014.
[32] Neelin J D,Munnich M,Su H,et al.Tropical drying trends in global warming models and observations[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2006,103(16):6110-6115.