气候变化下中国西北干旱区梭梭(Haloxylon ammodendron)潜在分布

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2018.00048

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 气候变化会引起物种分布区的改变甚至物种灭绝。梭梭（Haloxylon ammodendron）是中国的三级保护植物，是荒漠区特有植物种，对荒漠区的防风固沙和维持荒漠生态系统平衡起着关键作用。为了探究气候变化对梭梭潜在分布区的影响，对3种生态位模型（遗传算法模型、生态位因子分析模型、最大熵模型）进行了评估，筛选出最优模型并选出10个主要的环境因子。采用最优模型，使用17套大气环流模式，预测了两种温室气体排放情景（RCP4.5与RCP8.5）下未来两个时期（2041—2060年与2061—2080年）中国西北干旱区梭梭的潜在分布，将17套大气环流模式的模拟结果进行集合平均，并将结果划分为3个适宜性等级（低适宜、中适宜与高适宜分布）。结果表明：最大熵模型是模拟效果最好的模型（AUC=0.973）；所有环境因子中，与降水有关的环境因子的贡献率占60.5%，与温度有关的环境因子贡献率占14.8%，最湿季降水（39%）、土壤类型（22.7%）、温度季节性（9.1%）是对梭梭分布贡献率较高的环境因子；两种排放情景下，随着时间的推移，研究区内梭梭的低适宜分布区减少了9.36%～20.44%，中适宜分布区大部分情况下增加（3.50%～6.05%），在2061—2080年RCP8.5情景下减少了4.29%，高适宜分布区增加了11.01%～33.80%，总适宜分布区增加了7.47%～9.07%。总适宜分布区的增加主要来源于高适宜分布区的增加，其中塔里木盆地的高适宜分布区增加幅度最大，增加127%～669%，而柴达木盆地的高适宜分布区减少了4%～9%。

关键词: 生态位模型, 梭梭(Haloxylon ammodendron), 气候变化

Abstract: Climate change will lead to changes of species distribution and even species extinction. As a kind of third-class protection plant in China, Haloxylon ammodendron grows only in desert. It plays a key role in the prevention of wind and sand in desert areas and in maintaining the balance of desert ecosystems. In order to explore the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Haloxylon ammodendron, we evaluated the performance of GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production), ENFA (Ecological Niche Factor analysis) and Maxent (maximum entropy model), and then we selected the optimal model and 10 major environmental factors. We used the optimal model and 17 general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate the future potential distribution of the Haloxylon ammodendron in two periods (2041-2060 and 2061-2080), under two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in the Arid Area of Northwest China. The simulation results of 17 CCMs were assembled and averaged, and then were divided into 3 grades (low-suitable area, middle-suitable area and high-suitable area). The results show that MAXENT is the best model (AUC=0.973). The total contribution of factors related to precipitation is 60.5%, while the total contribution of factors related to temperature is 14.8%. Precipitation of wettest quarter (39%), soil type (22.7%) and standard deviation of temperature seasonality (9.1%) are most important factors. As time goes on, the low-suitable areas will reduce (9.36%-20.44%). In most cases, the middle-suitable areas will increase (3.50%-60.05%). While it will reduce by 4.29% in 2061-2080 period under RCP8.5 scenarios. The high-suitable areas will increase by 11.01%-33.80%, and the total suitable areas will increase by 7.47%-9.07% in study area. The increase of suitable area mainly due to the increase of the high-suitable area. The high-suitable area of the Tarim basin increase largest (127%-669%), while there is a slight reduction in the Qaidam basin (4%-9%).

Key words: ecological niche models, Haloxylon ammodendron, climate change

中图分类号:

Q145

常红, 刘彤, 王大伟, 纪孝儒. 气候变化下中国西北干旱区梭梭(Haloxylon ammodendron)潜在分布[J]. 中国沙漠, 2019, 39(1): 110-118.

Chang Hong, Liu Tong, Wang Dawei, Ji Xiaoru. Haloxylon ammodendron's Potential Distribution under Climate Change in Arid Areas of Northwest China[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2019, 39(1): 110-118.

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