核算区域的碳排放和碳汇量，分析其影响因素并预测未来变化情况，对区域适应气候变化和实现“双碳”目标具有重要的指导意义。本研究基于LMDI模型、STIRPAT模型、FLUS-InVEST模型等定量分析甘肃省碳排放与碳汇的现状特征及模拟未来变化情景，并定性讨论甘肃省减排增汇过程中可能遇到的挑战与机遇，提出甘肃省实现“双碳”目标的路径及具体的对策建议。结果表明：（1）甘肃省碳排放呈上升趋势，二次产业是排放大户。（2）经济产出是甘肃省碳排放增长的主导因素。（3）在全面优化情景下甘肃省碳排放如期达峰，减排效果最为理想。（4）甘肃省短期内新增碳汇缺口较大，难以抵消全部的碳排放。建议甘肃省实现“双碳”目标宜分两阶段进行，减排和增汇多措并举并优化经济发展、产业结构和能源消费等。

The work of accounting of carbon emissions and sinks， along with impact factor analysis and future projection， is of great importance for regions to adapt to climate change and achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets. This study first quantitatively analyzed and simulated the current characteristics and future scenarios of carbon emissions and carbon sinks in Gansu province based on the LMDI model， STIRPAT model， and FLUS-InVEST model. Then qualitatively discussed the possible challenges and opportunities in the process of reducing emissions and increasing sinks in Gansu province， and finally proposed a pathway and specific countermeasure suggestions for Gansu province to achieve its carbon peak and carbon neutral targets. The results show that： （1） Gansu province's carbon emissions are on the rise， and secondary industries are the major contributors to carbon emissions. （2） Economic output is the dominant factor in the growth of carbon emissions in Gansu province. （3） Under the full optimization scenario， Gansu province's carbon emissions peak in 2030 as scheduled， and the emission reduction effect is the most satisfactory. （4） Gansu Province has a significant gap in newly added carbon sinks in the short term， making it difficult to offset all carbon emissions. It is recommended that Gansu province's pathway to achieve its carbon peak and carbon neutral targets be carried out in two stages， with multiple measures to reduce carbon emissions and increase carbon sinks and optimize economic development， industry structure and energy consumption.