关键词: 碳中和, 碳减排, LMDI, STIRPAT, 甘肃省

Abstract:

The work of accounting of carbon emissions and sinks， along with impact factor analysis and future projection， is of great importance for regions to adapt to climate change and achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets. This study first quantitatively analyzed and simulated the current characteristics and future scenarios of carbon emissions and carbon sinks in Gansu province based on the LMDI model， STIRPAT model， and FLUS-InVEST model. Then qualitatively discussed the possible challenges and opportunities in the process of reducing emissions and increasing sinks in Gansu province， and finally proposed a pathway and specific countermeasure suggestions for Gansu province to achieve its carbon peak and carbon neutral targets. The results show that： （1） Gansu province's carbon emissions are on the rise， and secondary industries are the major contributors to carbon emissions. （2） Economic output is the dominant factor in the growth of carbon emissions in Gansu province. （3） Under the full optimization scenario， Gansu province's carbon emissions peak in 2030 as scheduled， and the emission reduction effect is the most satisfactory. （4） Gansu Province has a significant gap in newly added carbon sinks in the short term， making it difficult to offset all carbon emissions. It is recommended that Gansu province's pathway to achieve its carbon peak and carbon neutral targets be carried out in two stages， with multiple measures to reduce carbon emissions and increase carbon sinks and optimize economic development， industry structure and energy consumption.

Key words: carbon neutrality, carbon reduction, LMDI, STIRPAT, Gansu province