深入研究沙漠化逆转区的社会-生态系统恢复力，对制定科学的生态保护政策、巩固沙漠化治理成果以及推动区域可持续发展具有重要意义。以典型沙漠化逆转区宁夏盐池县为例，基于社会-生态系统的压力-状态-响应模型（SES-PSR）构建社会-生态系统恢复力评价指标体系，利用综合指数法及障碍度模型，探讨了2011—2021年盐池县恢复力变化及其成因；使用GM（1，1）与二次指数平滑组合预测模型，对2022—2031年恢复力进行了预测分析。结果表明：（1）盐池县2011—2021年社会-生态系统恢复力综合指数持续上升，压力指数小幅下降，状态指数显著增长，响应指数稳步提升。社会经济系统显著增强，生态环境系统有所改善。（2）2011—2015年，影响社会-生态系统恢复力的主要障碍因素包括耕地面积、禁牧和牧草良种补贴金额和人均GDP，而在2016—2021年，主要障碍则转变为非农业人口数量、人口自然增长率和造林面积。（3）未来10 a，预计盐池县社会-生态系统恢复力将继续增强，社会经济水平将不断提升，生态环境将持续得到改善。

In-depth research on the social-ecological system resilience of desertification reversal areas is crucial for formulating scientific ecological protection policies， consolidating desertification control achievements， and promoting regional sustainable development. This study takes Yanchi County， a typical desertification reversal area in Ningxia of China， as an example. Based on the social-ecological system PSR Model （SES-PSR）， it constructs an evaluation index system for social-ecological resilience. Utilizing the comprehensive index method and obstacle degree model， it explores the changes in resilience and their causes from 2011 to 2021. Additionally， the GM（1，1） and quadratic index smoothing combination prediction model are employed to forecast and analyze resilience for the period of 2022 to 2031. The results indicate that： （1） From 2011 to 2021， the comprehensive index of social-ecological resilience in Yanchi County has steadily increased， with a slight decline in the pressure index， a significant rise in the state index， and a steady improvement in the response index. The socio-economic system has notably strengthened， and the ecological environment has improved. （2） Between 2011 and 2015， the main obstacles affecting social-ecological resilience included arable land area， grazing bans， livestock subsidy policies， and per capita GDP. However， from 2016 to 2021， the primary obstacles shifted to non-agricultural population， natural population growth rate， and afforestation area. （3） In the next decade， the social-ecological resilience of Yanchi County is expected to continue strengthening， with ongoing improvements in socio-economic levels and ecological environments.