Sandy Desertification Early-warning Model based on a 30 m×30 m Grid Scale: A case study on middle section of the lower reaches of Tarim River

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2013.00004

JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH

2013, Vol. 33

Issue (1): 24-32 DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2013.00004

Desert and Desertification

Sandy Desertification Early-warning Model based on a 30 m×30 m Grid Scale: A case study on middle section of the lower reaches of Tarim River

MENG Xian-yong1,2, LIU Zhi-hui2,3,4, LI Cheng-zhi2,3, CAI Lei5, LIU Dun-li6

1.College of Resource and Environment Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;
2.Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;
3.Institute for Ecology and Environment in Arid Lands, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;
4.International Research Center for Sustainable Development in Arid and Semi-arid Lands, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;
5.The Geophysical Survey Team of Coalfield Geology Bureau of Shaanxi Province, Xian 710001, China;
6.Institute of Measurement and Testing of Xinjiang, Urumqi 830011, China

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Abstract

The lower reaches of the Tarim River was chosen as the study area, and a sandy desertification early-warning index system and model was set up based on understanding of climate, land surface, and human factors of sandy desertification. The early-warning indices were quantified and rasterized by ArcGIS based on remote sensing data, and the distribution patterns of sandy desertification in 1990, 2000 and 2006 in the study area were carried out on a grid scale of 30 m×30 m. The output results in 1990 and 2000 were used to correct the parameters, and the output results in 2006 were used for validation. Simulation results showed that the accurate rate was more than 90%, showing the model had good simulation effect. The development trend of sandy desertification in 2015 was predicted using this model under intermittent ecological water transport and no ecological water transport. The intermittent water transport made some desertification reversion, so it was a necessary measure to prevent sandy desertification. But in any case, desertification reversion only took place along the Tarim River, and the desertification status in the study area can not be changed thoroughly.

Key words: sandy desertification early-warning model grid scale lower reaches of the Tarim River ecological water transport

Received: 26 March 2012 Published: 20 January 2013

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	Articles by authors
	MENG Xian-yong1
	2
	LIU Zhi-hui2
	3
	4
	LI Cheng-zhi2
	3
	CAI Lei5
	LIU Dun-li6

Cite this article:

MENG Xian-yong1,2, LIU Zhi-hui2,3,4, LI Cheng-zhi2,3, CAI Lei5, LIU Dun-li6. Sandy Desertification Early-warning Model based on a 30 m×30 m Grid Scale: A case study on middle section of the lower reaches of Tarim River. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2013, 33(1): 24-32.

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http://www.desert.ac.cn/EN/10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2013.00004 OR http://www.desert.ac.cn/EN/Y2013/V33/I1/24

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