Abstract: Night-time satellite images from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) are widely used in the research of urban development. The stable night light data in 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2012 were selected to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution in the Hotan oasis of Xingjiang to reveal the law of changes, and to probe into the developing tendency of urban in desert area. The results are shown as follows: (1) The distribution of stable night light data show the phenomenon from decentralized state to the regular which reflects the process of regional social economy development from low to high. Especially in 2007, the core area of light data reached the saturation state (the value is 63), and significantly region growth on the outer edge. This reflects the center development of oasis city was tending to stability, and limited available space in core resulted to extend outwards continuously and accelerate speed. (2)The spatial distribution of stable nighttime light data showed the trend from point to belt along the road, which is consistent with the development of oasis cities. (3)The development trend of oasis cities in 2027 was forecasted with uncertain decision analysis. By 2027, the optimistic estimate of the entire region of light data increased by 0.3 times than 2012, and the urban area would expand about 0.6 times. The pessimistic estimate of light data nearly increased by 2 times, and the urban area would expand by 3 times. It can be inferred that the social and economic development will have the greater impact on the oasis environment. Therefore, in the next 15 years, we should pay more attention to the coordination of environmental capacity and the development of human society and economy.

Key words: night-time satellite imagery, spatio-temporal distributon, trend prediction, Hotan oasis