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JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH  2007, Vol. 27 Issue (1): 130-136    DOI:
天气与气候     
Fractal Characteristics and Trend Forecast of Dust-Storms and Severe-Dust-Storms in Northern China
YIN Xiao-hui1, WANG Shi-gong2
1.Beijing Meteorological Bureau, Beijing 100089, China; 2.School of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
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Abstract  

Dust-storm is a kind of common harmful weather phenomenon. A lot of domestic and international experts and scholar have paid close attention to the prediction of them due to the high frequency and severe calamity of dust-storms. This paper first reviewed the international progress of relevant research, and then analyzed the fractal characteristics of dust-storms and severe-dust-storms in recent 49 years in Northern China according to the observed data from 1954 to 2002. Finally, we used the R/S analytical method to predict the variation tendency of them. The results showed that the dust-storm and severe-dust-storm events have an approximate unanimous variation tendency; namely, the occurrence of dust-storm and severe-dust-storm reduced gradually since 1950s but increased relatively in recent years. The temporal sequences of dust-storms and severe-dust-storms in Northern China have fractal characteristics. The correlative dimensions are 2\^64 and 3\^34, and the average predictable periods are 7~8 years and 8~9 years respectively. The Hurst indexes can reflect the rules of dust-storms and severe- dust-storms in Northern China very well. According to the indexes and the variation tendency of dust-storm and severe-dust- storm, we can predict that the occurrence of dust-storm in Northern China will increase first and reduce next from 2002 to 2010 and the occurrence of severe-dust-storms will have a similar trend from 1999 to 2008.

Key words:  dust-storm      fractal theory      phase space reconstruction      forecasting time scale      R/S analysis     
Received:  08 August 2005      Published:  20 January 2007
ZTFLH:  P445.4  
Articles by authors
YIN Xiao-hui
WANG Shi-gong

Cite this article: 

YIN Xiao-hui;WANG Shi-gong. Fractal Characteristics and Trend Forecast of Dust-Storms and Severe-Dust-Storms in Northern China. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2007, 27(1): 130-136.

URL: 

http://www.desert.ac.cn/EN/     OR     http://www.desert.ac.cn/EN/Y2007/V27/I1/130

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