| Weather and Climate |
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| Probability Distribution of Precipitation Extremes over Xinjiang during 1961—2004 |
| ZHANG Yan-wei1,2,3, JIANG Feng-qing1*, WEI Wen-shou1,4, WANG Wen-wen5, LIU Ming-zhe1,3, HAN Xi1,2,3, HONG Wen1,2,3, LU Heng1,2,3 |
1.Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China;
2.Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
3.Tianshan Snow and Avalanche Research Station, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yining, Xinjiang 835000, China;
4.Institute of Desert Meteorology, CMA, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830002, China;
5.Department of Mathematic, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830046, China |
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Abstract Based on daily precipitation data from 55 meteorological stations in Xinjiang, China during 1961—2004 and the daily precipitation data simulated by PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies), the series of precipitation extremes, which contain annual maximum precipitation and annual maximum consecutive dry days, were constructed, and the distribution features of precipitation extremes were analyzed on the base of the two data series. Results show that: 1) the intensity and probability of annual maximum precipitation are the highest in Aheqi, Barkul, Zhaosu and Urumqi, and the intensity and probability of annual maximum consecutive dry days are the highest in Qiemo, Ruoqiang and Turpan; 2) compared with observational data, inter-annual average maximum precipitations simulated by PRECIS are higher, and the discrete coefficients of annual maximum precipitation simulated by PRECIS are higher too; 3) in spite of certain differences of the spatial distributions between observed and simulated precipitation extremes, the PRECIS simulation data have reference value. Fitting of precipitation extremes observation data shows that general extreme value distribution can fit the probability distribution of precipitation extremes quite well.
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Received: 11 June 2011
Published: 20 March 2012
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2012, Vol. 32 
