| 沙漠与沙漠化 |
|
|
|
|
| Desertification Evolution Prediction for Lake Area of Minqin Oasis Based on Integration of GIS and Cellular Automata |
| SONG Dong-mei1, WU Yuan-long1, ZHANG Zhi-cheng2, WANG Jian3, LI Xiao-yu4 |
| 1.College of Earth Resource and Information, China Petroleum University, Qingdao 266555, Shandong, China; 2.China Animal Health & Epidemiology Center, Qingdao 266032, Shandong, China; 3.Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; 4.Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China |
|
|
|
|
Abstract The ecological environment in the Lake area is the worst among Minqin oasis, where the groundwater level drops year by year, but its mineralization degree rises year by year. These have resulted in desertification getting more and more serious. The TM remote images in 1992, 1998, 2002 and 2006 over the Lake area of the Minqin oasis were interpreted to analyze the desertification evolution. Through the combination of ArcObjects module and Cellular Automata Model, a model simulating the desertification dynamics was set up. The forecasting accuracy of this model can reach 90%. In comparison of the predicted data with the actual ones, the parameters of this Cellular Automata Model were adjusted. The desertification situation in 2012 was forecasted by this model. The results showed that, from 2006 to 2012, the green land area will reduce 999.92 hm2, the desertification land area reduce 3 000.68 hm2, and sand land area will increase 4 000.6 hm2. The sand land will be more widespread, and 18% sand land will distribute in the middle of green land of the Lake area. Namely, more and more abandoned land in the green land will be transformed into sand land. As a result, this will intensify the desertification degree.
|
|
Received: 10 December 2008
Published: 07 September 2009
|
|
|
[1]宋冬梅,肖笃宁,张志城,等.石羊河下游民勤绿洲生态安全时空变化分析[J].中国沙漠,2004,24(3):335-342.
[2]宋冬梅,肖笃宁,张志城,等.甘肃民勤绿洲的景观格局变化及驱动力分析[J].应用生态学报,2003,14(4):535-539.
[3]蒋志荣,安力柴,成武.民勤县荒漠化影响因素定量分析[J].中国沙漠,2008,28(1):63-65.
[4]宋冬梅,肖笃宁,基于GIS的民勤绿洲湖区地下水资源时空变化对灌区生态安全的影响研究[J].应用生态学报,2004,15(10):1059-1062.
[5]邹应双,王义祥.基于RS和GIS的民勤湖区环境恶化动态分析[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),1999,35(4):109-116.
[6]赵翠莲,杨自辉,刘虎俊,等.民勤绿洲水资源利用与生态系统退化分析[J].中国沙漠,2006,26(1):90-95.
[7]杨自辉,俄有浩,方峨天等,等.民勤绿洲边缘物种多样性对水资源变化的响应[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(2):278-282.
[8]曹中初,孙苏南.CA与GIS的集成用于地理信息的动态模拟和建模[J].测绘通报,1999,10(11):47-50.
[9]汪杰,王耀琳,李昌龙,等.民勤绿洲水资源利用中的问题与节水途径[J].中国沙漠,2006,26(1):103-107.
[10]周成虎,孙站利,谢一春.地理元胞自动机研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2003.
[11]Juan R Sanchez,Ricardo L.Symmetry pattern transition in cellular automata with complex behavior[J]. Science Direct,2008,37:638-642.
[12]陈建平,丁火平,王功文,等.基于GIS和元胞自动机的荒漠化演化预测模型[J].遥感学报,2004,8(3):254-260.
[13]颉耀文,袁春霞,史建尧.近15年甘肃民勤湖区景观格局动态变化分析[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2008,44(1),11-16.
[14]秦向东,闵庆文.元胞自动机在景观格局优化中的应用[J].资源科学,2007,29(4):85-89.
[15]赵生龙,张建东.民勤绿洲荒漠化动态评价[J].安徽农业科学,2007,35(28):8956-8957.
[16]杨青生,黎夏.基于粗集的知识发现与地理模拟[J].地理学报,2006,61(8):825-894.
[17]Barbe A F,Haeseler V.Frame cellular automata:Configurations,generating sets and related matroids[J].Discrete Mathematics,2009,309(6):1222-1254.
[18]常兆丰,赵明,刘虎俊,等.民勤荒漠生态退化动态特征研究[J].中国农学通报,2007,23(11):333-338.
[19]李红军,李军,何清.新疆沙尘暴的趋势和突变研究[J].中国沙漠,2008,28(5):617-623. |
| No Suggested Reading articles found! |
|
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
| |
Shared |
|
|
|
|
| |
Discussed |
|
|
|
|
2009, Vol. 29 
