气候变暖背景下1961—2010年宁夏旱涝灾害空间分布特征和变化规律

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2013.00222

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用宁夏20个气象站1961—2010年实测气象资料,采用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、标准化降水指数等数理分析方法,对宁夏近50年旱涝灾害时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明:①1961—2010年宁夏气候暖干化趋势明显,增温速率为0.38 ℃/10a,远高于全国和西北地区;②1961—2010年宁夏降水量波动减少且具有整体性,雨量带明显南移,干旱、半干旱区域逐年扩大。③1961—2010年宁夏旱涝灾害交替发生,干旱化趋势明显。④在旱灾方面,宁夏南部山区旱灾频率相对较低,从南向北旱灾频率逐渐上升。北部灌溉区以轻微干旱为主,严重干旱和极端干旱主要发生在中部干旱区。⑤在涝灾方面,宁夏南部山区涝灾相对较少,依然呈现由南向北涝灾频率逐渐上升的空间格局。中等以上涝灾南部山区相对较多,严重湿润和极端湿润主要发生在北部引黄灌溉区。

关键词: 旱灾, 涝灾, 标准化降水指数, 时空格局, 宁夏

Abstract:

In order to monitor the drought and flood disasters variation in Ningxia, based on climate data from 1961 to 2010, we analyzed the fundamental characteristics and temporal-spatial distribution of the drought and flood disasters using methods of linear regression, Mann-Kendall test, and SPI index. Results showed that the trend of warming-drying was significant in Ningxia from 1961 to 2010 with a linear tendency 0.38℃/10a, which was bigger than linear tendency in the whole North-western China and the whole China. The precipitation decreased in Ningxia from 1961 to 2010, the rainfall belt significantly shifted to the south, and the scope of arid and semi-arid area increased markedly. The frequency of the drought and flood disasters was high, and the arid tendency was significant. In Ningxia, the frequency of drought disaster was relatively low in the southern mountain area, and the frequency increased from north to south. The north Yellow River irrigation region suffered mainly from moderate droughts, while severe and extreme drought occurred mostly in middle arid area. The frequency of flood disaster also relatively low in the southern mountain area, and the frequency increased from north to south too. There was relatively high frequency of moderate flood disasters in the southern mountain area, and severe and extreme flood occurred mostly in the north Yellow River irrigation region.

Key words: drought disaster, flood disaster, standardized precipitation index, spatial and temporal patterns, Ningxia

中图分类号:

P467

李双双, 延军平, 杨蓉, 胡娜娜. 气候变暖背景下1961—2010年宁夏旱涝灾害空间分布特征和变化规律[J]. 中国沙漠, 2013, 33(5): 1552-1559.

LI Shuang-shuang, YAN Jun-ping, YANG Rong, HU Na-na. Spatial-temporal Characteristics of Drought and Flood Disasters under the Background of Global Warming in Ningxia in 1961-2010[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2013, 33(5): 1552-1559.

参考文献

[1]国家林业局.第五次中国荒漠化和沙漠化公报[EB/OL].http://www.greentimes.com/green/econo/hzgg/ggqs/content/2011-01/05/content_114232.htm,2011-01-05/2011-11-28.

[2]王涛,吴薇,薛娴,等.近50年来中国北方沙漠化土地的时空变化[J].地理学报,2004,59(2):203-212.

[3]王涛,陈广庭,赵哈林,等.中国北方沙漠化过程及其防治研究的新进展[J].中国沙漠,2006,26(4):507-516.

[4]许端阳,李春蕾,庄大方,等.气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用评价综述[J].地理学报,2011,66(1):68-76.

[5]王涛,宋翔,颜长珍,等.近35 a来中国北方土地沙漠化趋势的遥感分析[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(6):1351-1356.

[6]陈晓光,李剑萍,韩颖娟,等.宁夏近20年来植被覆盖度及其与气温降水的关系[J].生态学杂志,2007,26(9):1375-1383.

[7]杨侃,许吟隆,陈晓光,等.全球气候模式对宁夏区域未来气候变化的情景模拟分析[J].气候与环境研究,2007,12(5):629-637.

[8]陈豫英,许吟隆,陈楠,等.SRESA2和B2情景下宁夏可利用降水资源的变化[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(1):207-216.

[9]李艳春.宁夏干旱区气候承载力分布特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(8):96-100.

[10]陈豫英,陈楠,王式功,等.近50 a来宁夏可利用降水的时空变化及其对生态环境的影响[J].中国沙漠,2008,28(4):748-754.

[11]贾科利,姚玉玲,郭占军.生态脆弱区土地利用格局变化及其环境效应——以宁夏回族自治区中部干旱带为例[J].水土保持通报,2011,31(6):218-228.

[12]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.

[13]周磊,武建军,吕爱峰,等.华北不同地表覆盖类型区干旱演变特征[J].地理研究,2012,31(4):597-607.

[14]赵林,武建军,吕爱锋,等.黄淮海平原及其附近地区干旱时空动态格局分析——基于标准化降雨指数[J].资源科学,2011,33(3):468-476.

[15]王素艳,郑广芬,杨洁,等.几种干旱评估指标在宁夏的应用对比分析[J].中国沙漠,2012,32(2):517-524.

[16]施雅风,沈永平,胡汝骥.西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步探讨[J].冰川冻土,2002,24(3):219-226.

[17]Lean J L,Rind D H. How natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures:1889 to 2006 [J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35:L18701.

[18]王绍武,罗勇,唐国利,等.近10年全球变暖停滞了吗?[J].气候变化研究进展,2010,6(2):95-99.

[19]张强,胡隐樵,曹晓彦,等.论西北干旱气候的若干问题[J].中国沙漠,2000,20(4):357-361.

[20]温克刚,夏普明.中国气象灾害大典(宁夏卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.

[21]杨淑萍,赵光平,孙银川,等.2004-2005年宁夏特大干旱事件的诊断分析[J].中国沙漠,2006,26(6):948-951.

[22]冯建民,梁旭,张智.宁夏旱涝灾害动态监测指标及其应用[J].干旱区资源与环境,2003,17(6):71-78.

[23]杨建玲,冯建民,郑广芬,等.宁夏中南部地区干旱变化趋势分析[J].中国沙漠,2012,32(3):842-851.